Population Distribution of Lifetime Risk of Ovarian Cancer in the United States

Celeste Leigh Pearce, Daniel O Stram, Roberta B Ness, Douglas Stram, Douglas A Stram, Lynda D Roman, Claire Templeman, Alice W Lee, Usha Menon, Peter A Fasching, Jessica N McAlpine, Jennifer A Doherty, Francesmary Modugno, Joellen M Schildkraut, Mary Anne Rossing, David G Huntsman, Anna H Wu, Andrew Berchuck, Malcolm C Pike, Paul D P Pharoah
Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2015 · vol. 24(4) , pp. 671–676 · doi:10.1158/1055-9965.epi-14-1128 · PMID:25623732 · W2045438979
article OA: bronze CC0 ⤵ 15 in-corpus citations
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⚙ AI-generated summary by claude@2026-06, 2026-06-08 ⓘ

This study modeled ovarian cancer lifetime risk in U.S. women based on genetic and lifestyle factors, finding risks ranging from 0.35% to 8.78% and identifying certain risk factor profiles associated with significantly higher risk.

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: In U.S. women, lifetime risk of ovarian cancer is 1.37%, but some women are at a substantially lower or higher risk than this average. METHODS: We have characterized the distribution of lifetime risk in the general population. Published data on the relative risks and their variances for five well-accepted risk and protective factors for ovarian cancer, oral contraceptive use, parity, tubal ligation, endometriosis, and first-degree family history of ovarian cancer in conjunction with a genetic risk score using genome-wide significant common, low penetrance variants were used. The joint distribution of these factors (i.e., risk/protective factor profiles) was derived using control data from four U.S. population-based studies, providing a broad representation of women in the United States. RESULTS: A total of 214 combinations of risk/protective factors were observed, and the lifetime risk estimates ranged from 0.35% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.29-0.42] to 8.78% (95% CI, 7.10-10.9). Among women with lifetime risk ranging from 4% to 9%, 73% had no family history of ovarian cancer; most of these women had a self-reported history of endometriosis. CONCLUSIONS: Profiles including the known modifiable protective factors of oral contraceptive use and tubal ligation were associated with a lower lifetime risk of ovarian cancer. Oral contraceptive use and tubal ligation were essentially absent among the women at 4% to 9% lifetime risk. IMPACT: This work demonstrates that there are women in the general population who have a much higher than average lifetime risk of ovarian cancer. Preventive strategies are available. Should effective screening become available, higher than average risk women can be identified.

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Condition tags

endometriosis

MeSH descriptors

Ovarian Neoplasms Contraceptives, Oral Demography Female Humans Life Tables Ovarian Neoplasms Risk Factors Sterilization, Tubal United States United States

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License: CC0 · commercial use OK