Alternative Fistula Risk Score and First Postoperative Day Drain Fluid Amylase as Predictors of Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreatoduodenectomy

Objectives: The alternative fistula risk score (aFRS) and the first postoperative day drain fluid amylase (DFA) are predictors of the occurrence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF). No consensus has been reached on which of the scores is a better predictor; moreover, their combined predictive power remains unclear. To our knowledge, this association had not yet been studied. Methods: This study assessed the predictive effect of aFRS and/or DFA on CR-POPF in a retrospective cohort of 58 patients following PD. The Shapiro-Wilk and the Mann-Whitney tests were applied for assessing the distribution of the samples and for comparing the medians, respectively. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and the confusion matrix were used to analyze the predictive models. Results: The aFRS values were not statistically different between patients in the CR-POPF and non-CR-POPF groups (Mann-Whitney U test: 59.5, p=0.12). The DFA values were statistically different between the CR-POPF and non-CR-POPF groups (Mann-Whitney U test: 27, p=0.004). The aFRS and DFA were independently less predictive for CR-POPF, compared to combined aFRS + DFA. Conclusions: The combined model involving aFRS>20% + DFA≥5,000 U/L was the most effective predictor of CR-POPF occurrence following PD.