Association between triglyceride-glucose index and risk of incident diabetes: a secondary analysis based on a Chinese cohort study

Abstract Background: Recent studies have suggested the triglyceride-glucose index (TyG index) may serve as a suitable substitute for insulin resistance. However, evidence for the relationship between TyG index and risk of diabetes remains limited. This study sought to explore the association of baseline TyG index with risk of developing diabetes in Chinese adults.Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the health screening program in China. A total of 201,298 non-diabetic individuals were included. TyG index was calculated as Ln [fasting plasma glucose (mg/dL) × fasting triglyceride level (mg/dL) / 2]. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL and/or self-reported diabetes. Cox proportion-hazard model was employed to evaluate the independent impact of baseline TyG index on future diabetes risk. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were implemented to verify the reliability of results. Notably, data were downloaded from the DATADRYAD website, and used only for secondary analyses.Results: During an average follow-up of 3.12 years, among 201,298 individuals aged ≥20 years, 3,389 subjects developed diabetes. After adjusting for potential confounders, elevated TyG index were independently correlated with greater risk of incident diabetes (hazard ratio (HR), 3.34; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.11–3.60). Compared with the lowest quartile (Q1), increasing TyG index (Q2, Q3, and Q4) was related to increased HR estimates of incident diabetes [HR (95% CI), 1.83 (1.49–2.26); 3.29 ( 2.70–4.01), and 6.26 (5.15–7.60), respectively]. Moreover, a nonlinear relationship was observed between TyG index and risk of diabetes and the slope of the curve increased accompanying the rise of TyG index. Subgroup analysis revealed the positive association was stronger among subjects with age < 40 years, body mass index ≥18.5 kg/m2 and < 24 kg/m2, or systolic blood pressure <140 mmHg, or in females.Conclusions: Elevated TyG index is independently correlated with increased risk of incident diabetes in Chinese adults, indicating it may represent a reliable predictor of diabetes in high-risk populations.