The link between past and future epidemics

The link between past and future epidemics | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 1 May 2025 V2 Latest version Share on The link between past and future epidemics Author : Sam Paplauskas 0000-0003-0303-0929 [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173679721.15010863/v2 282 views 252 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Human, animal and plant populations are at risk of large outbreaks of infectious diseases called ‘epidemics’. Despite the potential for strong antagonistic co-evolution between host and parasite infection traits, epidemiological research has often focussed on studying any given epidemic in isolation. Therefore, I propose a simple ‘Disease Cycle’ model that seeks to link the size of past and future epidemics of disease within the context of ongoing environmental perturbation. Specifically, I review some of the contemporary literature about evolutionary topics that are relevant to the Disease Cycle. I focus on three key axes of (co)evo-epidemiology, including (i) the link between epidemic size and the strength of selection, (ii) changes in host-parasite diversity as a result of the (co)evolution of host resistance or parasite infectivity and (iii) how either host or parasite population genetic diversity could impact on future epidemic size. I identify missing links in the Disease Cycle that could be filled by future work, but overall, I find compelling evidence supporting this model. Future work should focus on understanding how host (and parasite) population genetic diversity could impact on the variability of disease and how the strength of host or parasite-mediated selection might be linked to epidemic size. This Disease Cycle model can encourage the scientific community to conceptualise disease as part of an ongoing battle between the evolution of hosts and parasites that allows us to view epidemiology through a coevolutionary lens. Supplementary Material File (dc_manuscript1.pdf) Download 571.94 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 13 January 2025 V2 Version 2 01 May 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords coevolution environment epidemic genetic diversity host-parasite interactions Authors Affiliations Sam Paplauskas 0000-0003-0303-0929 [email protected] View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 282 views 252 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Sam Paplauskas. The link between past and future epidemics. Authorea . 01 May 2025. 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