Prediction of the Epidemic of COVID-19 Based on Quarantined Surveillance in China

Backgroud and Objective To predict the epidemic of COVID-19 based on quarantined surveillance from real world in China by modified SEIR model different from the previous simply mathematical model. Design and Methods We forecasted the epidemic of COVID-19 based on current clinical and epidemiological data and built a modified SEIR model to consider both the infectivity during incubation period and the influence on the epidemic from strict quarantined measures. Results The peak time of the curve for the infected newly diagnosed as COVID-19 should substantially present on Feb. 5, 2020 (in non-Hubei areas) and Feb. 19, 2020 (in Hubei). It is estimated that the peak of the curve of the cumulative confirmed cases will appear in non-Hubei areas on Mar. 3, 2020 and in Hubei province on Mar. 10, 2020, and the total number of the patients diagnosed as COVID-19 is 18,000 in non-Hubei areas and 78,000-96,000 in Hubei. The Chinese COVID-19 epidemic can be completetly controlled in May, 2020. Conclusions COVID-19 is only a local outbreak in Hubei Province, China. It can be probably avoided the pandemic of global SARS-CoV-2 cases rise with the great efforts by Chinese government and its people.