Assessing the Role of Post-Secondary Education Level on Unemployment Menace in Kenya: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.

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Abstract

Unemployment remains a major challenge in many developing countries in the world, including Kenya. It is worthy noting that, youths unemployment rate is high and mismatch of skills in the job market is phenomenal. This paper develops a deterministic mathematical model to assess the role of post-secondary education on the unemployment problem in Kenya. We perform a thorough quantitative and qualitative analysis of the model. We compute the unemployment reproduction R u , prove that the model has a unique unemployment free equilibrium (UFE) when R u 1 . The unique UFE and UEE are both locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever R u 1 respectively. Further, we validate the model by fitting it to real data of unemployed persons in Kenya in the year 1991−2023 as reported by the International Labour Organization (ILO). Numerical results indicate that, an increased individual’s skills match to the job market demands, significantly decreases the number of unemployed persons and increases the number of employed individuals. Moreover, it is demonstrated that, increasing the rate of employment to the unemployed persons reduces the problem of unemployment substantially. This can be achieved by setting up more sectors for job opportunities.
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Assessing the Role of Post-Secondary Education Level on Unemployment Menace in Kenya: A Mathematical Modeling Approach. | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 9 January 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Assessing the Role of Post-Secondary Education Level on Unemployment Menace in Kenya: A Mathematical Modeling Approach. Authors : Simon Kilole Kyalo , Musyoka Kinyili 0000-0002-2100-4313 [email protected] , Dominic Kitavi 0000-0003-1381-8525 , Zachariah Mbugua Mburu , and Glory Kawira Mutua Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173642042.25552380/v1 Published Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences Version of record Peer review timeline 1118 views 291 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Unemployment remains a major challenge in many developing countries in the world, including Kenya. It is worthy noting that, youths unemployment rate is high and mismatch of skills in the job market is phenomenal. This paper develops a deterministic mathematical model to assess the role of post-secondary education on the unemployment problem in Kenya. We perform a thorough quantitative and qualitative analysis of the model. We compute the unemployment reproduction R u, prove that the model has a unique unemployment free equilibrium (UFE) when R u 1 . The unique UFE and UEE are both locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever R u 1 respectively. Further, we validate the model by fitting it to real data of unemployed persons in Kenya in the year 1991−2023 as reported by the International Labour Organization (ILO). Numerical results indicate that, an increased individual’s skills match to the job market demands, significantly decreases the number of unemployed persons and increases the number of employed individuals. Moreover, it is demonstrated that, increasing the rate of employment to the unemployed persons reduces the problem of unemployment substantially. This can be achieved by setting up more sectors for job opportunities. Supplementary Material File (kilole_kinyili_kitavi_mburu_kawira_manuscript_v1.pdf) Download 962.93 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 09 January 2025 Peer review timeline Published Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences Version of Record 25 Feb 2026 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Collection Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences Keywords numerical simulation post-secondary education unemployment unemployment endemic equilibrium unemployment free equilibrium unemployment reproduction number Authors Affiliations Simon Kilole Kyalo University of Embu View all articles by this author Musyoka Kinyili 0000-0002-2100-4313 [email protected] University of Embu View all articles by this author Dominic Kitavi 0000-0003-1381-8525 University of Embu View all articles by this author Zachariah Mbugua Mburu University of Embu View all articles by this author Glory Kawira Mutua University of Embu View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 1118 views 291 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Simon Kilole Kyalo, Musyoka Kinyili, Dominic Kitavi, et al. Assessing the Role of Post-Secondary Education Level on Unemployment Menace in Kenya: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.. Authorea . 09 January 2025. 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