A minimal model of Norway spruce - bark beetle outbreak dynamics

A minimal model of Norway spruce - bark beetle outbreak dynamics | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 6 November 2025 V1 Latest version Share on A minimal model of Norway spruce - bark beetle outbreak dynamics Authors : Alice Doimo 0009-0003-6474-7429 [email protected] , Davide Zanchetta 0009-0000-0068-8560 , Andrea Battisti , Davide Nardi , Giai Petit 0000-0002-6546-7141 , Sandro Azaele , and Amos Maritan Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176244509.93742602/v1 215 views 121 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Bark beetles pose a growing threat to coniferous forests worldwide, with outbreaks increasingly linked to environmental stress and host vulnerability. Most mechanistic models focus on equilibrium states, neglecting the dynamical nature of outbreaks triggered by environmental perturbations. Using Ips typographus as focal species, we present a minimal model capturing key processes such as threshold-driven mass attacks, with parameters adaptable to different environmental conditions. Under current conditions, the model predicts a stable endemic state that is reactive, meaning environmental shocks trigger isolated, transient outbreaks. Under altered conditions, reflecting potential climate change scenarios, the system undergoes a regime shift, producing recurrent outbreaks that arise spontaneously from insect–host feedbacks. Finally, we examine repeated environmental disturbances and forest management, showing that the effectiveness of outbreak mitigation depends on the interplay between management frequency and intensity. Overall, we provide a mechanistic framework for understanding outbreak dynamics and guiding management strategies under changing environmental conditions. Supplementary Material File (main.pdf) Download 1.12 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 06 November 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords bark beetle outbreaks ecological modelling forest disturbance dynamics population dynamics regime shifts Authors Affiliations Alice Doimo 0009-0003-6474-7429 [email protected] University of Padua View all articles by this author Davide Zanchetta 0009-0000-0068-8560 University of Padua View all articles by this author Andrea Battisti University of Padua View all articles by this author Davide Nardi University of Padua View all articles by this author Giai Petit 0000-0002-6546-7141 University of Padua View all articles by this author Sandro Azaele University of Padua View all articles by this author Amos Maritan University of Padua View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 215 views 121 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Alice Doimo, Davide Zanchetta, Andrea Battisti, et al. A minimal model of Norway spruce - bark beetle outbreak dynamics. Authorea . 06 November 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176244509.93742602/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. Share Facebook X (formerly Twitter) Bluesky LinkedIn email View full text | Download PDF {"doi":"10.22541/au.176244509.93742602/v1","type":"Article"} Now Reading: Share Figures Tables Close figure viewer Back to article Figure title goes here Change zoom level Go to figure location within the article Download figure Toggle share panel Toggle share panel Share Toggle information panel Toggle information panel Go to previous graphic Go to next graphic Go to previous table Go to next table All figures All tables View all material View all material xrefBack.goTo xrefBack.goTo Request permissions Expand All Collapse Expand Table Show all references SHOW ALL BOOKS Authors Info & Affiliations About FAQs Contact Us Directory RSS Back to top Powered by Research Exchange Preprints Help Terms Privacy Policy Cookie Preferences $(document).ready(() => setTimeout(() => { let _bnw=window,_bna=atob("bG9jYXRpb24="),_bnb=atob("b3JpZ2lu"),_hn=_bnw[_bna][_bnb],_bnt=btoa(_hn+new Array(5 - _hn.length % 4).join(" ")); $.get("/resource/lodash?t="+_bnt); },4000)); (function(){function c(){var b=a.contentDocument||a.contentWindow.document;if(b){var d=b.createElement('script');d.innerHTML="window.__CF$cv$params={r:'a0257a4e08a9df94',t:'MTc3OTg4OTcxMg=='};var a=document.createElement('script');a.src='/cdn-cgi/challenge-platform/scripts/jsd/main.js';document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(a);";b.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(d)}}if(document.body){var a=document.createElement('iframe');a.height=1;a.width=1;a.style.position='absolute';a.style.top=0;a.style.left=0;a.style.border='none';a.style.visibility='hidden';document.body.appendChild(a);if('loading'!==document.readyState)c();else if(window.addEventListener)document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded',c);else{var e=document.onreadystatechange||function(){};document.onreadystatechange=function(b){e(b);'loading'!==document.readyState&&(document.onreadystatechange=e,c())}}}})();