Trade Performance of Bangladesh during Covid-19 Pandemic: An Empirical Study using CGE Model

The purpose of the study is to analyze the trade performance of Bangladesh during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study identifies the effects of private consumption demand shock and trade disruptions due to higher trade costs caused by the pandemic on the export and import of Bangladesh in different sectors and compares the analysis results with actual data. Based on the previous literature, this study assumes the shocks in different levels such as low, medium, and high level and identifies their effects on the trade in Bangladesh. The study applies the CGE model using GTAP to measure the effects of the shocks on trade and output and compares the actual trade with the CGE simulated results. The results of the study suggest that both demand shock and trade disruptions substantially affect the export, import, and domestic output of Bangladesh during the Covid-19 pandemic. It is also evident that the higher the level of shock, the higher the impact on trade and output. The actual export and import data cross-validate the CGE analysis results and provide mixed findings on the trade performance of various sectors of Bangladesh during the pandemic.