Independent Assessment of Global Temperature Rise Based Upon Approved Algorithms

This is not for a pre-submission inquiry but is provided at your request. This Article describes the total derivation process used for the determination of estimated global temperature increases based upon three prescribed emission reduction pathways. Those pathways were selected to meet the 1.5 C to 2.0 C goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. The derivation includes the methods published in two papers on the estimation of carbon sink values, and the calculation of radiative forcing based upon the atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O. A new climate sensitivity factor is also derived based upon anomalies in the past temperature profile. Lastly, the reasons for the large differences between this Article and the various Reports from the IPCC, UNEP and CAT are fully explained. This new assessment shows that the 1.5 C goal can be met by pursuing a linear reduction pathway of 0.6 GtCO2 per year from 40 Gt in 2020 to 12.4 Gt in 2066. Similarly, a 1.7 C goal can be met in 2094 by following a reduction pathway of 0.4 Gt per year to 10.0 Gt at net zero.