Accuracy of Conventional and Novel Scoring Systems in Predicting Severity and Outcomes in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Study

Abstract Backgroud: Recently there are several novel scoring systems to evaluate the severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis. This study is to compare the effectiveness of novel and traditional scoring systems for predicting severity and outcomes in acute pancreatitis.Methods: Patients between January 2003 and August 2020 were reviewed. Ranson score (RS), Glasgow score (GS), beside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), pancreatic activity scoring system (PASS), and Chinese simple scoring system (CSSS) were determined within 48h after admission. Multivariate logistic regression was used for severity, mortality, and organ failure prediction. Optimum cutoffs were identified using ROC analysis.Results: A total of 1848 patients were included. AUCs of RS, GS, BISAP, PASS, and CSSS for severity prediction were 0.861, 0.865, 0.829, 0.778, and 0.816, respectively. AUCs for mortality prediction were 0.693, 0.736, 0.789, 0.858, and 0.759. AUCs for ARDS prediction were 0.745, 0.784, 0.834, 0.936, and 0.820. AUCs for ARF prediction were 0.707, 0.734, 0.781, 0.868, and 0.816.Conclusions: RS, and GS predict severity superior to mortality and organ failure while PASS predicts mortality and organ failure better. BISAP and CSSS shared steady capacity in severity and outcomes prediction.