Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio is a Prognostic Predictive Factor for Local Advanced Lower Rectal Cancer Treated with Curative Surgical Treatment after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract Background: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) correlates with relapse-free survival (RFS) and may be a predictor of recurrence in patients after curative surgery for colorectal cancer. This study aimed to analyze the long-term oncological outcomes of locally advanced lower rectal cancer treated with curative surgery after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) to examine the prognostic value of the NLR and to evaluate the fluctuation of pre- and post-CRT NLR as recurrence risk factors.Methods: Fifty-two patients who underwent curative surgery were enrolled between 2009 and 2016. A cut-off pre-CRT NLR of 3.20 was used based on receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. The primary outcome was RFS. Factors influencing recurrence after treatment according to fluctuations between the pre- and post-CRT NLR were also analyzed.Results: Univariate analysis was performed using 17 clinicopathological factors thought to affect RFS. A significant difference was found in the pre-CRT NLR (hazard ratio [HR]: 7.626, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.760-21.06, p<0.0001), operation time (HR: 2.949, 95% CI: 1.137-7.646, p=0.0261), and pathological T stage (HR: 8.342, 95% CI: 2.458-28.306 p=0.0007). RFS according to the pre-CRT NLR using Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the group with pre-CRT ≥3.20 had a lower 5-year RFS (p=0.001). A lower pre-CRT NLR resulted in a significantly higher recurrence rate, regardless of the increase or decrease in the pre- and post-CRT NLR.Conclusions: The pre-CRT NLR may be a predictor of prognosis in patients with locally advanced lower rectal cancer after nCRT.