Weak signals, strong debates: Density dependence and population regulation through the lens of model uncertainty

Weak signals, strong debates: Density dependence and population regulation through the lens of model uncertainty | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 15 January 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Weak signals, strong debates: Density dependence and population regulation through the lens of model uncertainty Author : Evan Johnson 0000-0001-6352-2584 [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173693199.93092432/v1 201 views 127 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Ecologists have long argued about the strength of density dependence and population regulation, respectively defined as the short-term and long-term rate of return to equilibrium. Here, I argue that we cannot reliably quantify population regulation with time series data. An analysis of the Global Population Dynamics Database reveals that conclusions about population regulation are heavily dependent on model choice, with no clear way to select a particular model. A parallel debate in macroeconomics — regarding whether GDP shocks have permanent effects — remains unresolved despite extensive research, implying that the population regulation question is similarly intractable. However, we can measure the short-term property of density dependence, which is moderate on-average and shows considerable variation across populations: half-lives of perturbations typically last 0.7 to 4.2 years (interquartile range). Rather than a universal balance of nature, stability varies widely across populations in ways that correlate with life history and taxonomy. Supplementary Material File (density_dependence_v3 (4).pdf) Download 2.02 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 15 January 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords autoregressive balance of nature density dependence ecological forecasting global population dynamics database population dynamics population regulation stability time series Authors Affiliations Evan Johnson 0000-0001-6352-2584 [email protected] Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 201 views 127 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Evan Johnson. Weak signals, strong debates: Density dependence and population regulation through the lens of model uncertainty. Authorea . 15 January 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173693199.93092432/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); Cited by Tess N. Grainger, Keila Stark, Chuliang Song, Matthew A. Barbour, Rachel M. Germain, The Equilibrium Conundrum, Ecology Letters, 28 , 11, (2025). https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70232 Crossref Loading... View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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