Geographical Factors Determining the Transmission of COVID-19: Lessons Learned from Turkish Black Sea Region to Face Next Pandemic Crisis

The objective of the present study is to analyze COVID-19 transmission in specific dampest regions with excess rainfall and recurring fogs. The working hypothesis is that widespread transmission of SARS CoV 2 (leading to COVID-19) and similar viral agents can be explained by specific climate factors having high air humidity. The main case study of the Turkish Black Sea region is investigated. Results reveal that the provinces in region under study have some climate factors and geographical features that foster the accelerated transmission of viral agents, such as SARS-CoV-2, and consequential negative impact on society. In particular, Spearman's Correlation Coefficient shows a statistically significant positive association between the average atmospheric pressure and the spread of the COVID-19 confirmed cases in Samsun province (Spearman’s correlation coefficient rs =0.86, p-value 0.05). A statistically significant positive association between the average precipitation and the spread of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Sinop province (Spearman’s correlation coefficient rs =0.79, p-value 0.05), and finally, a statistically significant negative association between the average sun hour and the spread of the COVID-19 confirmed cases in Samsun province (Spearman’s correlation coefficient rs = 0.89, p-value 0.01). These findings suggest that regions' geographical characteristics, demographic structure, climate and environmental parameters must be considered in the national scale epidemic management plans to design effective anti-pandemic health policies to cope with future waves of the COVID-19 and new airborne diseases and to reduce negative effects on health, social and economic systems.