Exploring the Impact of Rainfall Temporal Distribution and Critical Durations on Flood Hazard Modeling

Exploring the Impact of Rainfall Temporal Distribution and Critical Durations on Flood Hazard Modeling | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Exploring the Impact of Rainfall Temporal Distribution and Critical Durations on Flood Hazard Modeling Marcus N. Gomes Jr., Vijay Jalihal, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4000788/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Urbanization and climate change amplify challenges posed by floods for both city dwellers and planners. Flood modeling, rooted in geosciences and atmospheric sciences, operates in a non-linear and multi-modal fashion, marked by uncertainties from factors like soil infiltration characteristics, floodplain roughness, and spatio-temporal variations in rainfall volume, distribution, and intensities. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a flood mapping methodology that incorporates synthetic design storms and compares them with a fitted median rainfall distribution derived from high-resolution observed rainfall data in the catchment. The flood hazard effect of choosing different rainfall temporal distribution methods is investigated. The Alternating Blocks Method and the Huff curves method, one of the most widely used methods in engineering hydrology, were chosen as representative synthetic rainfall methods for flood mapping assessment and compared against the measured median rainfall distribution. The framework was applied in a 131 km2 flood-prone urban catchment in Bangalore, India. Evaluation of different rainfall distributions reveals a potential 50% smaller areas with flood hazard, for the same return period and duration, simply by selecting a specific rainfall distribution compared to the expected fitted median rainfall distribution based on observed data. This research not only underscores the importance of appropriate rainfall distribution selection and critical rainfall duration, but also highlights the need for accurate data-driven methodologies in flood mapping, particularly in the face of urbanization and climate-induced complexities. Flood Mapping Huff Curves Alternated Blocks Method Rainfall Distribution Flood Hazard Full Text Supplementary Files SupplementalMaterialNaturalHazards.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4000788","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":275931104,"identity":"6a6d68de-48d2-4431-9c76-4a06c2ce72eb","order_by":0,"name":"Marcus N. Gomes Jr.","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8250-8195","institution":"The University of Arizona","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marcus","middleName":"N.","lastName":"Gomes","suffix":"Jr."},{"id":275931105,"identity":"ed617dd3-8663-4fdf-9336-3e48e2cfde97","order_by":1,"name":"Vijay Jalihal","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Vanderbilt University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vijay","middleName":"","lastName":"Jalihal","suffix":""},{"id":275931106,"identity":"231cbc32-b834-4550-972e-25fcad39cde6","order_by":2,"name":"Eduardo Mario Mendiondo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Sao Paulo Sao Carlos School of Engineering: Universidade de Sao Paulo Escola de Engenharia de Sao Carlos","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eduardo","middleName":"Mario","lastName":"Mendiondo","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-02-29 18:22:34","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4000788/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4000788/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":55878120,"identity":"90e1205f-874b-4a45-9c97-12df4afa791d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-05 15:38:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":9023227,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ExploringtheImpactofRainfallTemporal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4000788/v1_covered_4b2877cd-2829-4eb6-8113-43612de60e4c.pdf"},{"id":52040945,"identity":"55fdd0da-a9b8-41e4-9487-eac1550a76f5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-05 18:07:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":23355528,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementalMaterialNaturalHazards.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4000788/v1/db480cfb6994a22b83b7335a.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Exploring the Impact of Rainfall Temporal Distribution and Critical Durations on Flood Hazard Modeling","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Flood Mapping, Huff Curves, Alternated Blocks Method, Rainfall Distribution, Flood Hazard","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4000788/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4000788/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Urbanization and climate change amplify challenges posed by floods for both city dwellers and planners. Flood modeling, rooted in geosciences and atmospheric sciences, operates in a non-linear and multi-modal fashion, marked by uncertainties from factors like soil infiltration characteristics, floodplain roughness, and spatio-temporal variations in rainfall volume, distribution, and intensities. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a flood mapping methodology that incorporates synthetic design storms and compares them with a fitted median rainfall distribution derived from high-resolution observed rainfall data in the catchment. The flood hazard effect of choosing different rainfall temporal distribution methods is investigated. The Alternating Blocks Method and the Huff curves method, one of the most widely used methods in engineering hydrology, were chosen as representative synthetic rainfall methods for flood mapping assessment and compared against the measured median rainfall distribution. The framework was applied in a 131 km2 flood-prone urban catchment in Bangalore, India. Evaluation of different rainfall distributions reveals a potential 50% smaller areas with flood hazard, for the same return period and duration, simply by selecting a specific rainfall distribution compared to the expected fitted median rainfall distribution based on observed data. This research not only underscores the importance of appropriate rainfall distribution selection and critical rainfall duration, but also highlights the need for accurate data-driven methodologies in flood mapping, particularly in the face of urbanization and climate-induced complexities.","manuscriptTitle":"Exploring the Impact of Rainfall Temporal Distribution and Critical Durations on Flood Hazard Modeling","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-03-05 18:07:43","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4000788/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"246895b3-6674-402e-be5d-5ecf64d2796d","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 5th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-05-05T15:30:11+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-03-05 18:07:43","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4000788","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4000788","identity":"rs-4000788","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}