Offshore Wind Farm Operations under Reliability Uncertainty: A Financial and Environmental Impact Assessment

Offshore Wind Farm Operations under Reliability Uncertainty: A Financial and Environmental Impact Assessment | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Offshore Wind Farm Operations under Reliability Uncertainty: A Financial and Environmental Impact Assessment Vinit Dighe, Sam Ordeman, Yichao Liu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7647194/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The study addresses a critical challenge for the wind industry: rapidly evolving turbine designs are increasing uncertainty in component reliability, with significant consequences for both financial viability and environmental performance during operations. To tackle this, a methodology is developed that loosely couples a discrete-event O&M simulation model with a life cycle assessment (LCA) model, enabling quantification of annualized O&M costs (k€/MW/year) and CO2-equivalent emissions (kt/year) across the operational lifetime. The methodology is demonstrated through a case study of the future IJmuiden Ver wind farm, using wind farm and operational parameters derived from tender documentation and consultations with offshore stakeholders. Reliability uncertainty is captured through two scenarios: (i) constant failure rates and (ii) non-constant, component-specific Weibull patterns, both using identical mean times to failure. Results show that average O&M costs increase from 71.5 k€/MW/year to 77.5 k€/MW/year (+8.4%), while average emissions rise from 16.5 kt/year to 19.0 kt/year (+15.2%) when moving from scenario (i) to scenario (ii). These differences highlight how reliability uncertainties can be particularly detrimental, as they may trigger unplanned financial spikes in annual budgets and risk breaching emissions thresholds that are increasingly subject to monitoring and compliance. The findings aim to support developers, investors, and policymakers in designing offshore wind projects with holistic, risk-informed O&M strategies that are both economically viable and environmentally sustainable. wind farm operations financial modeling emission modeling component reliability Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 01 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 22 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 22 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 22 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 18 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7647194","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":523915477,"identity":"2cee9817-c39f-4d9c-8ccd-f30aa496534c","order_by":0,"name":"Vinit Dighe","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZgaGA0CSh0GCgfEBWISdGC0HIFqYDQ5ARQiDAyBlEgxsEkRpMTjOe/DwBwZrGfno5mPVH3fYMJgT1HKYLwHosHQewzvH0m4cPJPGYNlMQItkM48BUMthHsMZOWY3DrYdBhpCvJb8bwVEaeFnhmqRl8hhYyBeyxmDdB4DiTRjibNtaTwEtbDxnzH+UFFhbS8/I/nhh8o2GzmD4w0E9ICBARAdgDB5iFEPAfJEmT0KRsEoGAUjEgAA4PU//SaMJOkAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vinit","middleName":"","lastName":"Dighe","suffix":""},{"id":523915478,"identity":"9557589e-a299-4e54-a200-350a90dcb6a6","order_by":1,"name":"Sam Ordeman","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sam","middleName":"","lastName":"Ordeman","suffix":""},{"id":523915479,"identity":"7bf7fa12-85d5-4890-ae2d-77cf9639c545","order_by":2,"name":"Yichao Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yichao","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-18 08:38:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7647194/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7647194/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92751929,"identity":"942646e3-ae34-4365-90b3-afc779fbf44c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-03 23:05:36","extension":"json","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":5417,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"46b76f579ff940b7883958e758e221ba.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7647194/v1/995f82c54e2d3f819c8f964a.json"},{"id":92752055,"identity":"8db7d001-97dd-438a-a1c9-7ac35de4f346","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-03 23:13:38","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1124576,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SpringerNatureLaTeXTemplateDigheR1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7647194/v1_covered_392f7e04-dff9-4628-80d0-82a3aea0f805.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Offshore Wind Farm Operations under Reliability Uncertainty: A Financial and Environmental Impact Assessment","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-ocean-engineering-and-marine-energy","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"oeme","sideBox":"Learn more about [Journal of Ocean Engineering and Marine Energy](http://link.springer.com/journal/40722)","snPcode":"40722","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/40722/3","title":"Journal of Ocean Engineering and Marine Energy","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"wind farm operations, financial modeling, emission modeling, component reliability","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7647194/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7647194/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The study addresses a critical challenge for the wind industry: rapidly evolving turbine designs are increasing uncertainty in component reliability, with significant consequences for both financial viability and environmental performance during operations. 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