Spatiotemporal evolution trend and decoupling type identification of transport carbon emissions from economic development in China

Abstract Carbon emissions are a major concern in China, and transportation is an important part of it. In this paper, data on China's 30 provinces' transport carbon emissions from 2005 to 2020 were selected to construct a spatial autocorrelation model and identified the decoupling type, which revealed the relationship between transport carbon emissions and economic development. This study suggests a regulation strategy for provincial transport carbon emissions in China based on the contribution rates of transport carbon emission variables. According to the findings, transport carbon emissions of China indicated a slow rise from 2005 to 2020, the annual growth rate has fluctuated downward, and the use of petroleum products has been the most major source. The geographical correlation of transport carbon emissions has gradually improved, and the transport carbon emission intensity has become more significant. Differences of the transport carbon emission intensity slightly increased, that were significantly regionally correlated. There were seven forms of decoupling between yearly provincial transport carbon emissions and economic development, with weak decoupling accounting for the largest proportion, 42.89%. Decoupling was achieved in 90% of the provinces in 3 five-year periods from 2006-2020. As a consequence of factor decomposition, the energy intensity, transport intensity, and economic structure played an overall inhibitory role, while the carbon emission intensity, economic scale and population played promoting roles. Economic scale was the most important spatial influencing factor.