How can Chinese petrochemical companies achieve the “Dual Carbon” goal? A scenario-based system dynamics analysis

Abstract With the pressure of achieving the “Dual Carbon” goal (carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060) goal, it is very important to explore the appropriate carbon emission reduction strategy for petrochemical company. Based on an integrated analysis of alternative carbon emission reduction methods and national carbon emission reduction policies, simulation scenarios of carbon emission reduction strategies for petrochemical companies were designed in this study. A corresponding scenario-based system dynamics (SD) simulation model was then constructed to analyze the effect of each carbon emission reduction strategy. The obtained simulation results show that a petrochemical company implementing an aggressive carbon emission investment strategy will obtain the best emission reduction effect. Corresponding carbon emissions will begin to decline in 2030 and carbon neutrality will be achieved by 2058. It is suggested that, in the short term, petrochemical companies focus on carbon reduction technology innovation, which will help to reduce carbon emissions stably and quickly. In the long run, petrochemical companies should pay more attention to carbon capture, utilization, and storage to achieve the carbon neutrality goal no later than 2060. It is further recommended that the Government implements loose carbon emission reduction policies for the petrochemical companies to ensure economic development and carbon emission reduction investment by petrochemical companies.