Modeling Narrative Volatility in Periods of Political Instability: An AI-Enabled Analysis of Northern Ireland

Modeling Narrative Volatility in Periods of Political Instability: An AI-Enabled Analysis of Northern Ireland | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Modeling Narrative Volatility in Periods of Political Instability: An AI-Enabled Analysis of Northern Ireland Nuno Morgado, Amira Mouakher, Zoltán O. Szántó This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9142512/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Misinformation research has largely focused on identifying false content, often relying on platform-specific data and contested labeling practices. This article advances an alternative perspective by conceptualizing information disorder as a structural vulnerability arising from political instability and fragmented pub- lic narratives. Focusing on Northern Ireland as a post-conflict case, we integrate political event data with measures of media discourse structure to operational- ize narrative volatility—the degree to which news narratives become unstable over time. Using a combination of statistical, machine learning, and regime-based analyses, we show that narrative volatility varies independently of reporting volume and is shaped by both temporal persistence and crisis-like political con- ditions. An embedding-based semantic robustness check further confirms that periods of high narrative volatility correspond to genuine dispersion in media dis- course. Taken together, the findings support a structural account of information disorder in which vulnerability is rooted in political instability and discursive contestation rather than isolated content anomalies. Humanities/Complex networks Social science/Complex networks Humanities/Cultural and media studies Social science/Cultural and media studies Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing Social science/Politics and international relations Narrative volatility information disorder political instability geopolitical agent polarization media discourse event data Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 23 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 06 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 03 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 02 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 02 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9142512","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":618760097,"identity":"4acb5bbb-4812-4ddb-8261-2f6021dfeea9","order_by":0,"name":"Nuno Morgado","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Corvinus University of Budapest","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nuno","middleName":"","lastName":"Morgado","suffix":""},{"id":618760098,"identity":"06571de4-9bf8-4691-9ae0-b4798ed3471a","order_by":1,"name":"Amira Mouakher","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Perpignan","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Amira","middleName":"","lastName":"Mouakher","suffix":""},{"id":618760099,"identity":"ac4798bd-7828-4f72-ba17-3a9474d5ae81","order_by":2,"name":"Zoltán O. 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This article\nadvances an alternative perspective by conceptualizing information disorder as\na structural vulnerability arising from political instability and fragmented pub-\nlic narratives. Focusing on Northern Ireland as a post-conflict case, we integrate\npolitical event data with measures of media discourse structure to operational-\nize narrative volatility—the degree to which news narratives become unstable\nover time. Using a combination of statistical, machine learning, and regime-based\nanalyses, we show that narrative volatility varies independently of reporting\nvolume and is shaped by both temporal persistence and crisis-like political con-\nditions. An embedding-based semantic robustness check further confirms that\nperiods of high narrative volatility correspond to genuine dispersion in media dis-\ncourse. 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