A 39-Year Bibliometric Census of Korean Democracy Research (1987-2026): Subfield Growth, Cross-Subtopic Convergence, Paradigm-Shift Keyword Dynamics, Producer-Consumer Asymmetry, and Top-Down vs Bottom-Up Framing of Democratic Decline

A 39-Year Bibliometric Census of Korean Democracy Research (1987-2026): Subfield Growth, Cross-Subtopic Convergence, Paradigm-Shift Keyword Dynamics, Producer-Consumer Asymmetry, and Top-Down vs Bottom-Up Framing of Democratic Decline | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A 39-Year Bibliometric Census of Korean Democracy Research (1987-2026): Subfield Growth, Cross-Subtopic Convergence, Paradigm-Shift Keyword Dynamics, Producer-Consumer Asymmetry, and Top-Down vs Bottom-Up Framing of Democratic Decline Minyeong Kim This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9663651/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We report a 39-year, 7{,}190-paper bibliometric census of the Korean democracy literature drawn from Semantic Scholar and OpenAlex 2026-05-07 snapshots. Four confirmatory and three exploratory hypotheses were pre-registered on the Open Science Framework (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/Q9YWR, 12-month embargo) prior to the confirmatory harvest. All four confirmatory hypotheses are supported: subfield growth ( \((\hat{\beta} = 13.40)\) papers/year, HC3 \((p < 0.0001)\) ), multi-subtopic convergence, paradigm-shift keyword peaks within \(([2010, 2026])\) (``backsliding'' and ``polarization'' both peak 2024), and Korean producer share \((\leq 18.9%)\) on the 95% bootstrap interval (vs.\pre-registered \((\leq 30%)\) ). Among the exploratory analyses, bottom-up framing outweighs top-down framing by 1:3.96, and the gap narrows monotonically from 1:17 in the 1990s to 1:3.53 in the 2020s. The PELT change-point detector places the structural break in top-down framing at 2014 rather than at the registered 2024 martial-law candidate (H7-A rejected); a 5-candidate \((\times)\) 5-penalty multiverse reproduces the 2014 break under all five candidate years (H7-B rejected). The findings characterise Korean democratic decline as a gradualist top-down acceleration centred on a 2014 regime change inside a bottom-up dominant field, rather than as a single 2024 critical juncture. Corpus, code, deviation log, and pre-registration are released under CC BY 4.0. bibliometrics Korean democracy pre-registration democratic backsliding framing analysis producer-consumer asymmetry Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files democracybibliometricsosfarchive.tar.gz Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9663651","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":638197910,"identity":"cd413e65-e606-4db5-be6a-49c284cd6fe5","order_by":0,"name":"Minyeong Kim","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZgaGAx8qbEjTwnhwxpk0Eu05zNt2mAT1Bsd5DxzmOXM+j39G8rEPDDU20YS1HOZLODin4naxxI205BkMx9JyGwhpMTvMY3DgzZnbiQ1nzhgzMDYcJlILb9u5xPlnzn8mXstB3rYDiRuO9zATp8UepGXGmeTEjcfbjBkSiPGLZP8Z4w8fKuwS5x1mfszwocaGsBZUkECa8lEwCkbBKBgFuAAAvgpFdnbHTRQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Independent Researcher","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Minyeong","middleName":"","lastName":"Kim","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-05-09 12:38:23","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9663651/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9663651/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109068238,"identity":"3e5ea217-ac38-4788-8e60-0aff8362ba22","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-12 10:04:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":462077,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"democracybibliometricsemsubmission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9663651/v1_covered_4a18172d-5b0e-4f9e-81ea-08d86cb4bbda.pdf"},{"id":109039672,"identity":"b1f70a22-a4ff-4b52-bcb5-f858aa29e0ed","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-12 03:33:31","extension":"gz","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":3053599,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"democracybibliometricsosfarchive.tar.gz","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9663651/v1/ee1e51bf712d7e678f5235bc.gz"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A 39-Year Bibliometric Census of Korean Democracy Research (1987-2026): Subfield Growth, Cross-Subtopic Convergence, Paradigm-Shift Keyword Dynamics, Producer-Consumer Asymmetry, and Top-Down vs Bottom-Up Framing of Democratic Decline","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"bibliometrics, Korean democracy, pre-registration, democratic backsliding, framing analysis, producer-consumer asymmetry","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9663651/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9663651/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eWe report a 39-year, 7{,}190-paper bibliometric census of the Korean democracy literature drawn from Semantic Scholar and OpenAlex 2026-05-07 snapshots. Four confirmatory and three exploratory hypotheses were pre-registered on the Open Science Framework (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/Q9YWR, 12-month embargo) prior to the confirmatory harvest. All four confirmatory hypotheses are supported: subfield growth (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\((\\hat{\\beta} = 13.40)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e papers/year, HC3 \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\((p \u0026lt; 0.0001)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e), multi-subtopic convergence, paradigm-shift keyword peaks within \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(([2010, 2026])\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e (``backsliding'' and ``polarization'' both peak 2024), and Korean producer share \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\((\\leq 18.9%)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e on the 95% bootstrap interval (vs.\\pre-registered \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\((\\leq 30%)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e). Among the exploratory analyses, bottom-up framing outweighs top-down framing by 1:3.96, and the gap narrows monotonically from 1:17 in the 1990s to 1:3.53 in the 2020s. The PELT change-point detector places the structural break in top-down framing at 2014 rather than at the registered 2024 martial-law candidate (H7-A rejected); a 5-candidate \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\((\\times)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e 5-penalty multiverse reproduces the 2014 break under all five candidate years (H7-B rejected). The findings characterise Korean democratic decline as a gradualist top-down acceleration centred on a 2014 regime change inside a bottom-up dominant field, rather than as a single 2024 critical juncture. Corpus, code, deviation log, and pre-registration are released under CC BY 4.0.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"A 39-Year Bibliometric Census of Korean Democracy Research (1987-2026): Subfield Growth, Cross-Subtopic Convergence, Paradigm-Shift Keyword Dynamics, Producer-Consumer Asymmetry, and Top-Down vs Bottom-Up Framing of Democratic Decline","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-05-12 03:33:27","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9663651/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"fbc92cf3-4d3a-4dda-b4de-a5e72fb51659","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 12th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-05-11T10:54:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-05-11T10:54:06+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientometrics","date":"2026-05-09T12:23:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-12T03:33:28+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-05-12 03:33:27","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9663651","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9663651","identity":"rs-9663651","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}