What Causes Abnormal Changes in Investor Beliefs and Asset Prices?

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Abstract

We empirically study sources of abnormal changes, henceforth jumps, simultaneously in investor beliefs and asset prices using 164 million tweets from a social media investing platform, StockTwits. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that on average 4.88% (7.88%) jumps in asset prices (investor beliefs) caused by peer-effect component, 21.42% (19.36%) by exogenous component, and 73.70% (72.76%) by momentum-effect (prior-beliefs) component. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a 4.88\% (5.27%) decline in peer-effect component, a 10.93% (3.26%) decline in exogenous component and a 15.81% (8.52%) increase in momentum-effect (prior-beliefs) component in asset prices (investor beliefs), implying that: (i) market efficiency is not static, and; (ii) greater investor underreaction when there is greater information uncertainty.

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last seen: 2026-05-19T01:45:01.086888+00:00