The Implications of Ending Groundwater Overdraft for Global Food Security

Abstract Water and food security are intrinsically linked, and both are affected by climate change and unsustainable groundwater (GW) withdrawals. To achieve the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal 2 on ending hunger, both food and water systems need to adapt to climate change. This includes limiting GW withdrawals to sustainable levels without compromising food security. To analyze the potential of reducing GW overdraft without compromising food security globally and at regional scales, we implement a suite of biophysical-economic, food-water models to evaluate the impact of climate change on food security and the incremental effects of GW conservation. We further assess the impacts of selected climate change adaptation policy interventions that promote GW conservation. Measures aimed at arresting GW depletion without complementary policy actions would adversely affect food production, resulting in upward pressures on food prices, particularly for cereals and fruits and vegetables. Several options can mitigate price impacts, including through improved water management, agricultural research, and dietary change. We find that climate adaptation and GW conservation, coupled with policies such as investment in agricultural R&D and changing consumption patterns toward more planet-friendly diets, can potentially offset the negative impacts of reduced GW withdrawals, thereby ensuring food security for a larger share of the population.