Spill-overs and trade-offs for increasing livestock productivity

The overarching goal of the United Nations Food Systems Summit is to catalyze action for the transformations needed in food systems to accelerate the progress toward sustainable development goals (SDG). However, given the complexity of these interactions, gains in one area may determine losses in others. Using the Livestock Policy Simulation Model (LPSM), we assessed the effect of enhancing the productivity in the Ethiopian livestock sector by 2030. We show that an increase in productivity has several positive effects on GDP, employment generation, household consumption, and poverty reduction; however, these benefits might come at an environmental cost associated with a total increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Our results have important policy implications, showing that the achievement of some SDG targets could conflict with the accomplishment of others. The analysis illustrates the capacity of LPSM to integrate economic, social, and environmental dimensions while quantifying spillovers and trade-offs.