Scenario-based Inventory Modelling for Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Mineral Raw Materials (SIMPL-Minerals)

Scenario-based Inventory Modelling for Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Mineral Raw Materials (SIMPL-Minerals) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Scenario-based Inventory Modelling for Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Mineral Raw Materials (SIMPL-Minerals) Jonas Klimt, Robert Istrate, Valerio Barbarossa, Antoine Beylot, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8222189/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Purpose The demand for minerals for the energy transition is expected to increase greatly in the coming years, raising concerns about the environmental impacts of their supply. To calculate such future impacts, Prospective Life Cycle Assessment (pLCA) can be applied. However, pLCA studies in the mineral value chain often lack consistency, as they use different parameters for future scenarios. To guide prospective life cycle inventory (LCI) modelling and the consistent use of parameters in the mineral value chain, this study develops a systematic approach. Methods The approach builds on the SIMPL approach for scenario-based inventory modelling for pLCA by adding extensions specific to mineral value chains, resulting in the SIMPL-Minerals (SIMPL-M) approach. These extensions include defining stages and processes of mineral value chains, identifying parameters that connect to these stages, and linking parameters to macro-level factors that influence their future development. The identified parameters were validated through semi-structured interviews with experts. Furthermore, the SIMPL-M approach is demonstrated through a case study on future global nickel sulfate supply for battery production. Results and discussion The SIMPL-M identifies 19 relevant parameters that should be considered in pLCA studies of mineral value chain. These parameters depend on deposit characteristic-, technology-, and geography, and cover both primary and secondary value chains, from ore extraction or waste collection to final raw material product. The parameters are connected to a generic inventory model blueprint that shows to which stage they apply. The parameters are also linked to macro-level factors, enabling consistent scenario generation and coherent assumptions about future development of parameters. Applying the SIMPL-M approach in the nickel sulfate case study shows that including parameters beyond standard LCI background data significantly affects impact assessment results. Conclusion The proposed approach adapts the SIMPL framework to the mineral value chain, resulting in the SIMPL-M approach. SIMPL-M enables practitioners to consistently apply parameters in inventory modelling and to build scenarios based on macro-level factors and their influence on parameter development. This ensures that practitioners comprehensively consider relevant parameters, thus enhancing comparability between pLCA studies and can reduce modelling efforts for practitioners. Life cycle inventory LCA metals mineral commodities scenario analysis critical raw materials battery materials decarbonization Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SI4LCIbw25.xlsx SI 4 - LCI bw25 SI5Nicasestudyresults.xlsx SI 5 - Ni case study results SI6InterpolationREMINDdata.py SI 6 - Interpolation REMIND data SI1Parameterlist.xlsx SI 1 - Parameter list SI2Nickelsulfatecasestudy.xlsx SI 2 - Nickel sulfate case study SI3.docx Si 3 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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To calculate such future impacts, Prospective Life Cycle Assessment (pLCA) can be applied. However, pLCA studies in the mineral value chain often lack consistency, as they use different parameters for future scenarios. To guide prospective life cycle inventory (LCI) modelling and the consistent use of parameters in the mineral value chain, this study develops a systematic approach.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods \u003c/strong\u003eThe approach builds on the SIMPL approach for scenario-based inventory modelling for pLCA by adding extensions specific to mineral value chains, resulting in the SIMPL-Minerals (SIMPL-M) approach. These extensions include defining stages and processes of mineral value chains, identifying parameters that connect to these stages, and linking parameters to macro-level factors that influence their future development. The identified parameters were validated through semi-structured interviews with experts. 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Applying the SIMPL-M approach in the nickel sulfate case study shows that including parameters beyond standard LCI background data significantly affects impact assessment results.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusion \u003c/strong\u003eThe proposed approach adapts the SIMPL framework to the mineral value chain, resulting in the SIMPL-M approach. SIMPL-M enables practitioners to consistently apply parameters in inventory modelling and to build scenarios based on macro-level factors and their influence on parameter development. This ensures that practitioners comprehensively consider relevant parameters, thus enhancing comparability between pLCA studies and can reduce modelling efforts for practitioners.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Scenario-based Inventory Modelling for Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Mineral Raw Materials (SIMPL-Minerals)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-28 12:05:01","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8222189/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"139de6d4-0f36-43ae-a39b-14385724a9ce","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 28th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-28T12:05:01+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-28 12:05:01","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8222189","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8222189","identity":"rs-8222189","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}