Time Series Analysis for Optimizing Leachate Management in Landfills under Weather Conditions with Sudden Heavy Rain

Time Series Analysis for Optimizing Leachate Management in Landfills under Weather Conditions with Sudden Heavy Rain | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Time Series Analysis for Optimizing Leachate Management in Landfills under Weather Conditions with Sudden Heavy Rain Hiroyuki Ishimori, Yugo Isobe, Tomonori Ishigaki, Masato Yamada This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6397455/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 08 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Environmental Modeling & Assessment → Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Leachate management in landfill site is a major issue in both environmental conservation and facility operation. With recent climate change, extremely heavy rains have caused landfill sites to exceed their drainage capacity. This could lead to leakage of leachate and serious damage on the surrounding environment. We proposed models to predict leachate volume, leachate electric conductivity and leachate temperature, then investigated how to control the waste layer conditions and reduce the load on leachate treatment facility. In the models, we set rainfall and temperature as explanatory variables and used Auto-Regressive with eXogenous (ARX) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). Under non-linear or unexpected conditions, GPR predicted leachate volume, leachate electrical conductivity, and leachate temperature with higher accuracy and fewer relearing process than ARX. GPR having such characteristics was considered relatively suitable for the management of leachate and landfill condition. It means necessary to collect training data continuously and refine the model. Waste landfill Leachate Prediction Data science High temporal resolution Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 08 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Environmental Modeling & Assessment → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 08 Jul, 2025 Reviews received at journal 02 Jul, 2025 Reviews received at journal 27 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 May, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 28 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 24 Apr, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 10 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 07 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6397455","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":449288352,"identity":"f573c8b4-916d-42c5-9e9d-a25fc57f8442","order_by":0,"name":"Hiroyuki Ishimori","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute for Environmental Studies","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hiroyuki","middleName":"","lastName":"Ishimori","suffix":""},{"id":449288354,"identity":"b10b2e07-ec06-49d5-9665-16e1d02eb970","order_by":1,"name":"Yugo Isobe","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Center for Environmental Science in Saitama","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yugo","middleName":"","lastName":"Isobe","suffix":""},{"id":449288357,"identity":"bf2831ec-6544-429f-adc9-0213d891ff70","order_by":2,"name":"Tomonori Ishigaki","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute for Environmental Studies","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tomonori","middleName":"","lastName":"Ishigaki","suffix":""},{"id":449288359,"identity":"d1ac6fcd-38a0-4939-aca9-10cb26225034","order_by":3,"name":"Masato Yamada","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute for Environmental Studies","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Masato","middleName":"","lastName":"Yamada","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-07 21:38:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6397455/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6397455/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-025-10084-4","type":"published","date":"2025-11-08T15:57:26+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":95564752,"identity":"f8837b21-a14a-4859-af81-ac5fcd8dc5f6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-10 16:10:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3529372,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"EMA0410.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6397455/v1_covered_ad11ad3b-aa97-4ae4-9110-c259f7bf112f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Time Series Analysis for Optimizing Leachate Management in Landfills under Weather Conditions with Sudden Heavy Rain","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-modeling-and-assessment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"enmo","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Modeling \u0026 Assessment](https://www.springer.com/journal/10666)","snPcode":"10666","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10666/3","title":"Environmental Modeling \u0026 Assessment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Waste landfill, Leachate, Prediction, Data science, High temporal resolution","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6397455/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6397455/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eLeachate management in landfill site is a major issue in both environmental conservation and facility operation. With recent climate change, extremely heavy rains have caused landfill sites to exceed their drainage capacity. This could lead to leakage of leachate and serious damage on the surrounding environment. We proposed models to predict leachate volume, leachate electric conductivity and leachate temperature, then investigated how to control the waste layer conditions and reduce the load on leachate treatment facility. In the models, we set rainfall and temperature as explanatory variables and used Auto-Regressive with eXogenous (ARX) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). Under non-linear or unexpected conditions, GPR predicted leachate volume, leachate electrical conductivity, and leachate temperature with higher accuracy and fewer relearing process than ARX. GPR having such characteristics was considered relatively suitable for the management of leachate and landfill condition. It means necessary to collect training data continuously and refine the model.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Time Series Analysis for Optimizing Leachate Management in Landfills under Weather Conditions with Sudden Heavy Rain","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-30 11:15:56","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6397455/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-07-08T08:13:48+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-07-02T07:25:36+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-06-27T07:41:16+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"256350457274317795739238919884579891140","date":"2025-06-02T08:47:42+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"314696898134027652422119604345047047646","date":"2025-05-13T12:58:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-04-28T18:49:23+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-04-25T01:17:17+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-04-10T20:31:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Environmental Modeling \u0026 Assessment","date":"2025-04-07T21:30:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-modeling-and-assessment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"enmo","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Modeling \u0026 Assessment](https://www.springer.com/journal/10666)","snPcode":"10666","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10666/3","title":"Environmental Modeling \u0026 Assessment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"754186e2-8f2f-4f56-aaa0-23b9ce9d8149","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 30th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-10T16:09:23+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6397455","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-025-10084-4","journal":{"identity":"environmental-modeling-and-assessment","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Environmental Modeling \u0026 Assessment"},"publishedOn":"2025-11-08 15:57:26","publishedOnDateReadable":"November 8th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-30 11:15:56","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s10666-025-10084-4","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-025-10084-4","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6397455","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6397455","identity":"rs-6397455","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}