Marriage–Divorce Dynamics in Azerbaijan, 2014 – 2023: A Time-Series Study

Marriage–Divorce Dynamics in Azerbaijan, 2014 – 2023: A Time-Series Study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Marriage–Divorce Dynamics in Azerbaijan, 2014 – 2023: A Time-Series Study Khatira Khalafli, Flora Taghiyeva, Javanshir Rahimov, Mahira Amirova, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7142167/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background.: Crude marriage rates (CMR) in Azerbaijan have declined steadily during the last decade, while divorces have risen — an inversion with profound demographic and economic consequences. Objectives.: We quantify these trends with monthly micro-data, test for structural breaks around the COVID-19 pandemic, and estimate the macro-economic determinants of divorce. Methods.: Monthly civil-registry micro-files (2014–2023) from the State Statistical Committee (SSC) were aggregated to annual series. Seasonal–trend decomposition, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling, and Chow tests were applied. Multivariate autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) models linked divorce to unemployment and inflation; sensitivity checks included wild-bootstrap confidence intervals and heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. Results.: Marriage rates fell at –0.34 (95 % CI –0.47, –0.22) per 1 000 pop/year, while divorce rates rose at +0.08 (+0.04, +0.11). A break in 2020 (τ = –4.27, p = .01) confirmed pandemic disruption. Children born to women in unregistered unions declined 38.7 %. Inflation and unemployment jointly explained 61 % of divorce variation (R² adj = .61). Out-of-sample forecasts predict a modest uptick in marriages by 2026 if unemployment remains below 5 %. Conclusions.: Azerbaijan’s nuptiality reversal is driven by economic stress and was exacerbated by pandemic restrictions. Digitised marriage-registration services and counter-cyclical labour measures may arrest adverse demographic momentum. Contribution.: This is the first decade-long, high-resolution time-series analysis of marriage and divorce in Azerbaijan using computational econometrics. Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing Health sciences/Medical research marriage rate divorce rate ARIMA Chow test Azerbaijan unregistered birth digital civil registration demographic economics Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Dataset.docx Datasetlinks.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 05 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 04 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 27 Aug, 2025 Editor invited by journal 27 Aug, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 11 Aug, 2025 First submitted to journal 11 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7142167","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":510391175,"identity":"e8aa1709-933e-467a-a620-9e22d9e98b0f","order_by":0,"name":"Khatira Khalafli","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Azerbaijan Medical University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Khatira","middleName":"","lastName":"Khalafli","suffix":""},{"id":510391176,"identity":"814d9b24-84a6-44ec-872c-bbd1f831256c","order_by":1,"name":"Flora Taghiyeva","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Azerbaijan Medical 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divorce.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMethods.: Monthly civil-registry micro-files (2014–2023) from the State Statistical Committee (SSC) were aggregated to annual series. Seasonal–trend decomposition, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling, and Chow tests were applied. Multivariate autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) models linked divorce to unemployment and inflation; sensitivity checks included wild-bootstrap confidence intervals and heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eResults.: Marriage rates fell at –0.34 (95 % CI –0.47, –0.22) per 1 000 pop/year, while divorce rates rose at +0.08 (+0.04, +0.11). A break in 2020 (τ = –4.27, p = .01) confirmed pandemic disruption. Children born to women in unregistered unions declined 38.7 %. Inflation and unemployment jointly explained 61 % of divorce variation (R² adj = .61). Out-of-sample forecasts predict a modest uptick in marriages by 2026 if unemployment remains below 5 %.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eConclusions.: Azerbaijan’s nuptiality reversal is driven by economic stress and was exacerbated by pandemic restrictions. Digitised marriage-registration services and counter-cyclical labour measures may arrest adverse demographic momentum. 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