BREWING DISCONTENT: How U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs on Coffee Could Echo the Boston Tea Party

BREWING DISCONTENT: How U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs on Coffee Could Echo the Boston Tea Party | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 3 April 2025 V1 Latest version Share on BREWING DISCONTENT: How U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs on Coffee Could Echo the Boston Tea Party Authors : MUHAMMAD SUKRI RAMLI 0009-0003-7206-7706 [email protected] , Muhammad Sukri , and Bin Ramli Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174371571.13454530/v1 250 views 85 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract This research employs quantitative techniques interpreted through relevant economic theories to analyze a proposed U.S. "Discounted Reciprocal Tariff" structure. Statistical modeling (linear regression) quantifies the policy's consistent 'discounted reciprocity' pattern, which is interpreted using a Game Theory perspective on strategic interaction. Machine learning (K-Means clustering) identifies distinct country typologies based on tariff exposure and Economic Complexity Index (ECI), linking the policy to Economic Complexity theory. The study's primary application focuses on the major coffee exporting sector, utilizing simulation modeling grounded in principles of demand elasticity and substitution to project potential trade flow impacts. Specifically, for coffee, this simulation demonstrates how the proposed tariff differentials can induce significant substitution effects, projecting a potential shift in U.S. import demand away from high-tariff origins toward lowertariff competitors. This disruption, stemming from the tariffs impacting exporting countries, is projected to ultimately increase coffee prices for consumers in the United States. Findings throughout are contextualized within Political Economy considerations. Overall, the study demonstrates how integrating regression, clustering, and simulation with economic theoryexemplified through the coffee sector analysis-provides a robust framework for assessing the potential systemic impacts, including consumer price effects, of strategic trade policies. Supplementary Material File (reciprocaltariffusa2025.pdf) Download 1.22 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 03 April 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License Keywords boston tea party demand elasticity international trade, reciprocal tariff, tariff policy, trade flows, Authors Affiliations MUHAMMAD SUKRI RAMLI 0009-0003-7206-7706 [email protected] View all articles by this author Muhammad Sukri Asia School of Business Kuala Lumpur View all articles by this author Bin Ramli Asia School of Business Kuala Lumpur View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 250 views 85 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation MUHAMMAD SUKRI RAMLI, Muhammad Sukri, Bin Ramli. BREWING DISCONTENT: How U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs on Coffee Could Echo the Boston Tea Party. Authorea . 03 April 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174371571.13454530/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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