The growing threat of spatially synchronized dry–hot events to global crop productivity

The growing threat of spatially synchronized dry–hot events to global crop productivity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The growing threat of spatially synchronized dry–hot events to global crop productivity Waqar ul Hassan, Munir Ahmad Nayak, Md Saquib Saharwardi, Harikishan Gandham, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6438653/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Compound hazards, like simultaneous occurrence of unusually dry and hot (DH) weather, cause cascading socio-economic damages that surpass univariate hazards. In the context of agricultural production, DH events triggered by pressure and moisture flux anomalies are responsible for some of the most severe agricultural losses across the globe.Most analyses focus on characterizing compound events in individual regions, and the extent of spatial synchrony of DH events and their impacts on crop production has yet to be quantified. Here, using observation-based gridded precipitation and temperature data, we find that the frequency of widespread spatial synchrony—defined as five or more regions simultaneously experiencing DH events—has increased nearly ten-fold over the past four decades, while confined events are declining. This rapid synchronization, especially in recent decades, reflects a non-linear response to global warming. These widespread events reduce global ecosystem productivity by ~0.75%, with a 10% increase in synchronous area lowering productivity by ~1.2% and maize and wheat yields by 10–15%. The results suggest revising food security policies to account for the rising frequency of spatially widespread DH events and their potential for substantial, cascading losses, rather than focusing solely on individual events in isolated areas. Compound dry and hot events Primary productivity Crop yield Global warming Spatial synchronization Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SupportingInformation.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6438653","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":442237129,"identity":"cb28b780-3eb9-423b-a1ba-3ae2a013f097","order_by":0,"name":"Waqar ul Hassan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Waqar","middleName":"ul","lastName":"Hassan","suffix":""},{"id":442237130,"identity":"6b581f27-79b5-47be-8d7c-86dc0e6c913e","order_by":1,"name":"Munir Ahmad 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In the context of agricultural production, DH events triggered by pressure and moisture flux anomalies are responsible for some of the most severe agricultural losses across the globe.Most analyses focus on characterizing compound events in individual regions, and the extent of spatial synchrony of DH events and their impacts on crop production has yet to be quantified. Here, using observation-based gridded precipitation and temperature data, we find that the frequency of widespread spatial synchrony—defined as five or more regions simultaneously experiencing DH events—has increased nearly ten-fold over the past four decades, while confined events are declining. This rapid synchronization, especially in recent decades, reflects a non-linear response to global warming. These widespread events reduce global ecosystem productivity by ~0.75%, with a 10% increase in synchronous area lowering productivity by ~1.2% and maize and wheat yields by 10–15%. 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