Large-scale ice shelf calving events follow prolonged amplifications in flexure

Large-scale ice shelf calving events follow prolonged amplifications in flexure | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Large-scale ice shelf calving events follow prolonged amplifications in flexure Luke Bennetts, Nathan Teder, Phillip Reid, Robert Massom, Jordan Pitt, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4651999/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Geoscience → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The retreat of Antarctic ice shelves due to calving and the subsequent reduction in buttressing of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are of major concern for future sea-level rise. Sudden, widespread calving of weakened ice shelves has been linked to fracture amplification forced by ocean swell following regional sea-ice losses. Increases in magnitude and duration of swell-induced ice-shelf flexure in the lead-up to the calving events have not been tracked previously. We present seven-year datasets of sea-ice-barrier lengths and shelf-front flexural stress that encompass large-scale calving events of the Wilkins and Voyeykov ice shelves. We find the ice shelves share traits of preconditioning by prolonged amplifications in flexure and collapse of adjoining fast-ice barriers. We propose a conceptual model for the swell–sea-ice–shelf-front conditions leading to the calving events and discuss its implications further large-scale calving events as sea ice retreats and ice shelves thin. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Geoscience → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4651999","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":390555774,"identity":"f86895e7-75fe-4c39-abe6-3cb75fbdfdf2","order_by":0,"name":"Luke 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