Brazilian beef production and GHG emission – social cost of carbon and perspectives for climate change mitigation

Among all Brazilian economic sectors, the livestock sector stands out due to its large production and high export volume. However, beef production is associated to significant environmental impacts, such as deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. The Paris Agreement was settled to avoid that global mean temperature rise up to 1.5 – 2º C by 2100. In 2020, Brazil committed in its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to reduce its GHG emission by 43% until 2030. This study aims to identify the association of beef production and beef cattle emissions, as well as assess predictive GHG emission scenarios for 2030 and value these emissions. To translate the environmental impacts of beef production into economic impacts, and thus amplify the discussion, we valued GHG emissions using the social cost of carbon (SCC). The results showed that the business as usual (BAU) GHG emission derived from beef production would range between 0.423 and 0.634 GtCO2e in 2030, whereas the maximum emission estimated to meet the NDC should be 0.257 GtCO2e. The SCC revealed the opportunity to reduce between US $18.8 and $42.6 billion in the cost of BAU emissions from beef production in 2030 if the NDC is met. Lastly, assessing a scenario where climate targets and beef exports are prioritized, between 2-10 kg of beef per capita would be available in the domestic market in 2030. Our results reveal the need and urgency of changes in livestock production to emit less GHG per kg of beef produced, and the avoided monetary cost of reducing emissions.