Geopolitical risks in energy system models: hindcasting in 31 European countries

Geopolitical risks in energy system models: hindcasting in 31 European countries | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Geopolitical risks in energy system models: hindcasting in 31 European countries Aleksandr Gavrikov, Xin Wen, Lucien Merrone, Evelina Trutnevyte This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7502773/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Geopolitics undoubtedly shapes energy transitions, but to date, it has been rarely incorporated into energy system models or integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs). Here, we integrate five indices reflecting geopolitical risks into national electricity system models in 31 European countries and use hindcasting over the 1990–2019 period to evaluate these model implementations. Specifically, we model the possible effects of geopolitical risks by enforcing more renewable or domestic technologies, by changing discount rates to represent investment risk, or by modifying energy security requirements, such as increasing capacity margin or diversifying investments. Our hindcasting results show that implementing geopolitical risks into modeling in all these different ways makes no simultaneous improvement in all countries, but some specific model versions do produce more accurate outputs in most countries. The choice of geopolitical risk indices does not matter as much, but better hindcasting accuracy is achieved for larger countries because the model more accurately reflects their shift towards renewable sources above climate policy. Representing geopolitical considerations in energy system models, like modeling other societal factors, is thus worthwhile, but highly challenging due to the multifaceted nature of geopolitics, the varying response of individual countries to elevated risk, and the intertwined nature of geopolitics and other factors that shape transitions. Geopolitics geopolitical risk index energy system model integrated assessment model hindcasting model evaluation Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterials.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7502773","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":508152700,"identity":"06806acc-2333-452e-95bc-c650e3d1f1f8","order_by":0,"name":"Aleksandr 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