Forecasting oil spills in the Caribbean Sea. The Amuay Refinery Incident

Forecasting oil spills in the Caribbean Sea. The Amuay Refinery Incident | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Forecasting oil spills in the Caribbean Sea. The Amuay Refinery Incident Claudia Patricia Urbano-Latorre, Leidy Maricela Castro-Rosero, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6173552/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Colombian Caribbean harbors promising offshore exploitation zones, but they are also highly susceptible to oil spills, which lead to impactful environmental, social, and economic consequences. In this context, this study analyses the development of a new ecosystem of climate services for Colombia, including maritime oil spills, based on different observations and the use of NOAA's General Operational Modelling Environment (GNOME). To showcase its performance, the study focuses on the oil spill event in the Colombian and Venezuelan Caribbean Sea: The Amuay refinery incident of October 31st, 2017. Simulations were conducted using the GNOME model with various atmospheric forcings –from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the Centre ERS d'Archivage et de Traitement (CERSAT)– and oceanic forcings –the Copernicus Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis (GLORYS), the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). The results were compared with ground-based data and satellite imagery, incorporating optical and radar satellite data (Planet, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-1). The use of the system in the Colombian-Venezuelan Caribbean effectively replicated the spill's arrival date on the Colombian coast and the affected areas, providing a trajectory closely aligned with satellite observations. Nevertheless, the simulations' efficacy was found to be contingent on the spill's initial conditions and the utilized forcing data. The results indicate that, at least for cases like the one analyzed in the Colombian-Venezuelan Caribbean Sea, GNOME is a useful analytical tool for immediate decision-making in hydrocarbon spill incidents. It has the potential for extended forecast horizons at sub-seasonal timescales. However, ongoing efforts to enhance prediction accuracy are essential to strengthening the capacity to respond to oil spill emergencies in the future. Oil spills climate services GNOME Caribbean Coast Amuay Refinery accident Full Text Additional Declarations Competing interest reported. Conflicts of interest The work presented here is part of the Ph.D. Thesis of CU Supplementary Files SupplementaryAColombianNavyClimateServiceforMaritimeOilSpills14032025.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 29 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 26 May, 2025 Reviews received at journal 02 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 27 Mar, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 18 Mar, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 18 Mar, 2025 First submitted to journal 06 Mar, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6173552","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":441612037,"identity":"f0a09906-d187-4390-bc9e-70ca890f32c9","order_by":0,"name":"Claudia Patricia Urbano-Latorre","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAx0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACNhAhx3AYwuPhI1aLMVwLG7FaEhsOIHPxAf4Zuc8e/Nxhk953nDvxcwXDNhk2BuaHD/BpkbiRbm7YeyYtd+Zh3s2SZxhuAx3GZmyAT4uBRBqbBG/b4dwNh3k3SDaAtfCwSRDSIvm37XC6AdCWn0RrkQbakgDUso04WyTOPGM3lm1LMwT6ZZtlgwFQCzMBv/C3p7E9fNtmI893/uzmmw0Vt+352Zvxhxi6O4GYmQT1o2AUjIJRMAqwAwDUXj4x3t2huQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Dirección General Marítima","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Claudia","middleName":"Patricia","lastName":"Urbano-Latorre","suffix":""},{"id":441612038,"identity":"c1df7c79-8d3d-427a-b648-a417b4c306b8","order_by":1,"name":"Leidy Maricela Castro-Rosero","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Dirección General Marítima","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Leidy","middleName":"Maricela","lastName":"Castro-Rosero","suffix":""},{"id":441612039,"identity":"7215aab0-0e55-4db8-8663-55c9b4f577b6","order_by":2,"name":"Ángel G. 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