Turnout and the Distortion of Representation: The case of Electoral Polarisation

Turnout and the Distortion of Representation: The case of Electoral Polarisation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Turnout and the Distortion of Representation: The case of Electoral Polarisation Alan Al Yussef This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8850742/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In this paper we examine the impact of voter turnout on electoral polarisation—the degree to which voters are dispersed in their party choice in elections. Low turnout alters the ideological composition of the electorate by mobilising voters who are most alienated from the expected governing coalition. We develop a theoretical model showing that heterogenous turnout constitutes a mean-preserving spread of the population’s ideological distribution. The resulting distortion in representation is not arbitrary: the electorate appears more polarised than the wider population. Studying electoral results from the Dutch general elections in 2010, 2012 and 2017 on the local level, we show that polarisation is consistently, substantially, and significantly higher in municipalities with low levels of voter turnout. If centrist voters are more likely to abstain, low turnout implies the overrepresentation of polar voters. We show that the farther a party is from the ideological centre, the more it benefits from low turnout, with this pattern especially pronounced at both ends of the left–right spectrum. JEL Codes: D71, D72, H7, P1, D02, D83. Voting representation populism polarisation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8850742","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":593523331,"identity":"2b83d0e6-0686-41c6-ab5a-a010b7ba4c75","order_by":0,"name":"Alan Al Yussef","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA70lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACdjBpAeXZ2DAwSDCw4dfCDCYloLy0NNK1HCashb+Z+dkDhhoJBoMb6Y8/fEg4n7jhdgPbgw94tEgcZjM3YDgG0pJjJjkj4XbihjsH2A1n4LPmMIMZ0CVgLWzMvD9uGxvcSGCT5sGjQ/4w+zcJhn8Qh33+k3AOouUPHi0Gh3nMJBjbQFoSDKQZEg7IgbXgc5fhYZ4yicQ+CR7JM2/MJHsSkuUk7xxsN+zBo0XuePs2iQ/fbOT4jgND7EeCHQ/f7eZjD37gswYEEhgYeBQOwLmMDYQ0QIA8kepGwSgYBaNgBAIACt5Jv0YNvNkAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Vrije Universiteit Brussel","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alan","middleName":"Al","lastName":"Yussef","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-11 11:06:49","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8850742/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8850742/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":103504393,"identity":"b0f216ba-5b1c-45df-a39f-20c80e0cc9b7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-26 13:19:41","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":724205,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"TurnoutandtheDistortionofRepresentationChicagostyle.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8850742/v1_covered_d9f6736f-b12a-44b7-b179-8b2aadf3f448.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Turnout and the Distortion of Representation: The case of Electoral Polarisation","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Voting, representation, populism, polarisation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8850742/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8850742/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn this paper we examine the impact of voter turnout on electoral polarisation—the degree to which voters are dispersed in their party choice in elections. 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