A Strong Constraint on Radiative Forcing of Well-mixed Greenhouse Gases

A Strong Constraint on Radiative Forcing of Well-mixed Greenhouse Gases | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article A Strong Constraint on Radiative Forcing of Well-mixed Greenhouse Gases Jing Feng, David Paynter, Raymond Menzel, Ryan Kramer This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7247389/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Nature → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) is a primary driver of Earth’s energy imbalance but remains difficult to constrain due to its dependence on atmospheric state and model discrepancies. We present the first global benchmark of longwave (LW) instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) for major WMGHGs under realistic, all-sky conditions. This benchmark is supported by (1) global line-by-line radiative transfer simulations using 24 years of reanalysis-based atmospheric and cloud conditions, and (2) a robust linear relationship between LW IRF and outgoing longwave radiation, enabling direct observational constraints from satellites. Using this framework, we estimate that the rising WMGHG concentrations increased LW IRF by 3.71±0.07W/m² from 1850 to 2024. Applying this benchmark to Earth System Models, we reduce the uncertainty in CO2 effective radiative forcing by 60%. This observation-informed, physically grounded method offers a more accurate and consistent constraint on greenhouse gas forcing for future climate assessment reports. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Attribution Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Radiative Forcing Greenhouse Gases Earth System Modeling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Nature → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7247389","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":497341118,"identity":"2603e184-d908-40ca-aac1-3c96426a1338","order_by":0,"name":"Jing Feng","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxmYQaQPE7A0MDAlwcTZCWtKAmOcARAsPIS0QANIiAbWCoBbmdt7DLxgSbPLkI98e+/Bwh52cPXvvAYYPZYfxOIwvzYIhIa3Y8HZe8ozEM8nGPDznEhhnnMOnhcfMgPHH4cSNs3OMGRLbDiT2SOQYMPO2EdDCkPA/cePMM2At9WAtf/FrMX7AkHAgcb4ED1hLAg9ICyMBWxgSEpITN/DkJQO1JBv2nDljcLDnXDpOLYb9Z4w/fEiwS5zffvYw4882O3n29h7DBz/KrHFraWBgA8eIwQEehOgBnOqBQB4YNR/AjAYefOpGwSgYBaNgJAMA7wlTP32zocYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1144-622X","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jing","middleName":"","lastName":"Feng","suffix":""},{"id":497341119,"identity":"df31c593-1dc6-45c5-bc27-2edc32828aef","order_by":1,"name":"David Paynter","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"GFDL","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Paynter","suffix":""},{"id":497341120,"identity":"e4cf86ec-d792-4702-ab86-bc036974a796","order_by":2,"name":"Raymond Menzel","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Raymond","middleName":"","lastName":"Menzel","suffix":""},{"id":497341121,"identity":"3b33eaeb-e091-49a0-a87d-6a5f5c5ee8e6","order_by":3,"name":"Ryan Kramer","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9377-0674","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ryan","middleName":"","lastName":"Kramer","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-30 01:45:51","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7247389/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7247389/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10289-x","type":"published","date":"2026-03-18T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104951725,"identity":"3600fdeb-648c-44d5-bf06-282f017e74a0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-19 07:07:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":4130924,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"AStrongConstraintonRadiativeForcingofGreenhouseGasesNature2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7247389/v1_covered_9ed96df4-8221-468e-90c1-f4a121181a83.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"A Strong Constraint on Radiative Forcing of Well-mixed Greenhouse Gases","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Radiative Forcing, Greenhouse Gases, Earth System Modeling","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7247389/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7247389/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRadiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) is a primary driver of Earth’s energy imbalance but remains difficult to constrain due to its dependence on atmospheric state and model discrepancies. 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