Population Projections and Sustainable Development Challenges in China

Population Projections and Sustainable Development Challenges in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Population Projections and Sustainable Development Challenges in China Jian Chen, Xiaofeng Zhao, Zhiqiang Tian, Kaiqin Jiang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8205524/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The essence of population forecasting lies in the understanding and grasp of population development patterns. The ability to predict population trends scientifically has become a crucial tool for advancing the sustainable socio-economic development of a nation. Traditional studies predominantly employ mathematical models to project future population trends, yet few have endeavored to capture both the linear and nonlinear characteristics of population changes in their predictions. This study employs an ARIMA-LSTM coupling model, enhanced through Bootstrapping, to forecast the population scale and structural trends at the national, provincial, and municipal levels from 2021 to 2035.The research indicates that the population size of China will continue to show a negative growth trend in the future.By 2035, the total population will shrink to 1.314 billion, and 80.9% of the urban population will face contraction. In the future, China's population age structure will face multiple challenges such as severe aging, severe low birth rate, and contraction of the labor force size.By 2035, the proportion of people aged 65 and above will exceed 30%, the proportion of people aged 0–14 will be lower than 14%, and the proportion of the 15–64 years old working-age population will drop to around 54%.The age structure type will shift from a young growth type and a mature stable type to an unbalanced type and an aging decline type. In the future, the urban-rural structure of China's population will show a migration of the population from rural areas and small and medium-sized cities to core urban agglomerations and megacities.The net inflow of urban population and the net outflow of rural population will grow simultaneously.By 2035, the urban population will increase to 1.022 billion, and the rural population will shrink to 292 million. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Social science/Environmental studies Scientific community and society/Geography Social science/Geography Population prediction Population size Population structure Bootstrapping-ARIMA-LSTM coupled model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 20 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 05 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 26 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 19 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 24 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 24 Dec, 2025 Editor invited by journal 17 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 11 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 11 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8205524","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":565143658,"identity":"e1115179-4e5c-4f67-9567-88ef1d59c339","order_by":0,"name":"Jian Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"School of Public Administration, Hohai University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jian","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":565143660,"identity":"a85a432e-f083-459c-a376-66e94e9b2a68","order_by":1,"name":"Xiaofeng 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China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"palcomms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Humanities \u0026 Social Sciences Communications](http://www.nature.com/palcomms/)","snPcode":"41599","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41599/3","title":"Humanities and Social Sciences 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The ability to predict population trends scientifically has become a crucial tool for advancing the sustainable socio-economic development of a nation. Traditional studies predominantly employ mathematical models to project future population trends, yet few have endeavored to capture both the linear and nonlinear characteristics of population changes in their predictions. This study employs an ARIMA-LSTM coupling model, enhanced through Bootstrapping, to forecast the population scale and structural trends at the national, provincial, and municipal levels from 2021 to 2035.The research indicates that the population size of China will continue to show a negative growth trend in the future.By 2035, the total population will shrink to 1.314\u0026nbsp;billion, and 80.9% of the urban population will face contraction. In the future, China's population age structure will face multiple challenges such as severe aging, severe low birth rate, and contraction of the labor force size.By 2035, the proportion of people aged 65 and above will exceed 30%, the proportion of people aged 0\u0026ndash;14 will be lower than 14%, and the proportion of the 15\u0026ndash;64 years old working-age population will drop to around 54%.The age structure type will shift from a young growth type and a mature stable type to an unbalanced type and an aging decline type. In the future, the urban-rural structure of China's population will show a migration of the population from rural areas and small and medium-sized cities to core urban agglomerations and megacities.The net inflow of urban population and the net outflow of rural population will grow simultaneously.By 2035, the urban population will increase to 1.022\u0026nbsp;billion, and the rural population will shrink to 292\u0026nbsp;million.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Population Projections and Sustainable Development Challenges in China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-26 13:51:21","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8205524/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-04-20T10:43:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-05T07:21:27+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"107240457581131686560560686287183284968","date":"2026-02-16T12:55:12+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"253299524615808792210323550876826299984","date":"2026-02-14T09:58:17+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-01-26T10:23:07+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-01-19T16:45:55+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"6900882369471272108289838530054866768","date":"2026-01-06T11:10:32+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"189552492861694388032949017565541545961","date":"2026-01-06T07:43:06+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-24T10:14:16+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-12-24T05:24:40+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-17T10:01:17+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-12-11T14:38:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","date":"2025-12-11T14:23:18+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"palcomms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Humanities \u0026 Social Sciences Communications](http://www.nature.com/palcomms/)","snPcode":"41599","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41599/3","title":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Nature AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d1c8fb1c-cde5-4b08-940f-81adf6cf3429","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 26th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":60169133,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences"},{"id":60169134,"name":"Social science/Environmental studies"},{"id":60169135,"name":"Scientific community and society/Geography"},{"id":60169136,"name":"Social science/Geography"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-21T18:23:16+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-26 13:51:21","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8205524","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8205524","identity":"rs-8205524","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}