Estimating large carnivore populations in an arid fenced reserve using spatial capture-recapture modelling

Estimating large carnivore populations in an arid fenced reserve using spatial capture-recapture modelling | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 28 October 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Estimating large carnivore populations in an arid fenced reserve using spatial capture-recapture modelling Authors : Marna Visagie 0009-0005-8473-9105 [email protected] , Rob Davis 0000-0002-9953-1340 , Elizabeth Kennedy Overton , and Jan Venter 0000-0002-4548-2571 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176164960.05845703/v1 264 views 132 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Fencing has become a critical tool in large carnivore conservation in South Africa, mitigating human-wildlife conflict and habitat fragmentation. However, reliable population density estimates for large carnivores in fenced, arid environments remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by conducting a single-season camera trap survey in the Tswalu Kalahari Reserve (hereafter Tswalu), South Africa. Using spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models, we estimated leopard (Panthera pardus) density at 0.18/ 100 km² (± SE 0.09), among the lowest reported in fenced systems and comparable to densities in unfenced arid systems. Only 21.18% of camera traps detected leopards, suggesting factors limiting their distribution or recovery in Tswalu. In contrast, brown hyaena (Parahyaena brunnea) density was estimated at 3.1/ 100 km² (± SE 0.51), the highest estimate for the arid Northern Cape province, exceeding densities in mesic environments but lower than those from arid fenced reserves in Namibia. Spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta) density was 0.66 / 100 km² (± SE 0.25), the second lowest across fenced African systems and the first estimate for the Northern Cape. This study provides critical baseline data for carnivores in an underrepresented arid system, highlighting the importance of density estimates for informing conservation strategies. We recommend expanding camera trap surveys onto adjacent unprotected private lands and other key Northern Cape conservation areas to assess carnivore presence beyond Tswalu’s boundaries, combined with continued annual monitoring within Tswalu. Ongoing SCR studies across South Africa’s fenced reserves are crucial for strengthening evidence-based conservation and management planning for large carnivores in arid habitats. Supplementary Material File (wb_tswalu_carnivore_article_m visagie.docx) Download 2.03 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 28 October 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords arid habitats camera trapping fenced reserves large carnivores long-term monitoring population density Authors Affiliations Marna Visagie 0009-0005-8473-9105 [email protected] Nelson Mandela University Faculty of Science View all articles by this author Rob Davis 0000-0002-9953-1340 Nelson Mandela University Faculty of Science View all articles by this author Elizabeth Kennedy Overton Nelson Mandela University Faculty of Science View all articles by this author Jan Venter 0000-0002-4548-2571 Nelson Mandela University Faculty of Science View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 264 views 132 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Marna Visagie, Rob Davis, Elizabeth Kennedy Overton, et al. Estimating large carnivore populations in an arid fenced reserve using spatial capture-recapture modelling. Authorea . 28 October 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176164960.05845703/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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