Conditions and pathways for a climate club to reach a more ambitious global treaty

Conditions and pathways for a climate club to reach a more ambitious global treaty | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Conditions and pathways for a climate club to reach a more ambitious global treaty Pablo Núñez-Yebra, Jeroen van den Bergh, Ivan Savin, Jozsef Zsiros This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4124770/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Despite the Paris Agreement, countries worldwide persist in non-harmonized and weak climate policies, triggered by concerns about competitiveness and trade effects. In view of this, the concept of a “climate club” of countries appears to be a promising complement to the Paris Agreement. This study sheds light on the potential of such a club through the use of an agent-based model that explores its dynamics and convergence to a stable coalition. The model describes 31 heterogeneous (blocks of) countries calibrated on empirical data concerning carbon emissions, abatement costs, domestic carbon prices, and the relative change in export volume upon the introduction of a border carbon tariff. In each period, non-members evaluate the possibility to join the club, while club members consider the option of leaving it, based on trading-off costs and benefits. The iterative process of joining and leaving is repeated until a stable coalition emerges in which no country wants to change its membership status. We run the model for 117 scenarios that capture a variation in the values of four key parameters: the initial coalition, the uniform carbon price of the club, the stringency of the border tariff, and the allocation of tariff revenues. An additional scenario is developed to capture the implications of WTO rules. The results indicate that achieving global coverage by a club created by the European Union alone or together with the United States has a high likelihood under a sufficiently stringent border tariff, equal to or higher than the club’s carbon price. Moreover, a partial return of the tariff revenues to non-members helping them cover abatement costs serves both to mitigate the risk of trade retaliation and to further motivate outsiders to join the club. Environmental Policy Ecological Modeling Environmental Economics Macroeconomics Abatement carbon price harmonized policy international trade border carbon adjustment Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4124770","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":281037877,"identity":"5b9016be-cef6-4e79-b278-84a6850d86f2","order_by":0,"name":"Pablo Núñez-Yebra","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHsYDUBbjAwaGA7gVImmBK2M2gGhhJl4LmwRRWszZzx448IHhTuJ29vZn1Tw1dxj428/jd51lT17CwRkMzxJ39hxIu81z7BmDxJlk/LYYHMgxOMzDcDhxw42EY7d52A4zGDAQ0nL+DVTL/YdtxTz/gFr4HxPQcgNuCzMbM28bUIsEAVssZ7wD+sXgsPGGM2nMknP7nvFI3HhsgFeLOX/uwQcfKg7Lbjh+/OGHN9/uyPH3Jz7A7zAkEgx48LsKVfEoGAWjYBSMAhwAADrKTf3B3tfYAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6649-2150","institution":"Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals - 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