Assessment of Rainfall Trends and Rainfall Extremes for Different Return Periods in the Chittagong Region through Trend and Frequency Analysis Using Best-Fit Probability Distributions

Assessment of Rainfall Trends and Rainfall Extremes for Different Return Periods in the Chittagong Region through Trend and Frequency Analysis Using Best-Fit Probability Distributions | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 9 January 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Assessment of Rainfall Trends and Rainfall Extremes for Different Return Periods in the Chittagong Region through Trend and Frequency Analysis Using Best-Fit Probability Distributions Authors : Md. Mahfuzar Rahman , Fatema TuzZohora Niha 0009-0001-6628-9500 [email protected] , and Md. Zillur Rahman Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173641412.24542900/v1 217 views 91 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract To predict natural events such as intense precipitation, flooding, and landslides, analyzing trends in rainfall patterns and conducting frequency analysis using the most suitable probability distribution function (PDF) is essential. The study aims to perform trend analysis and conduct frequency analysis after determining the best-fit PDF based on 35 years of annual rainfall data from 1988 to 2023 for nine stations in the Chittagong division, Bangladesh. Sen’s Slope Estimator and the Mann-Kendall trend model were used for trend analysis. Several PDFs, such as Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type-III, Log Pearson Type-III, Log-Normal, and Normal, were used, and return periods were estimated. Three goodness-of-fit tests—the Anderson-Darling, Chi-Square, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov—are performed to determine the best-fit PDF. All stations showed a declining trend, except CL325 (which exhibited an upward trend). Three of the stations showed statistically significant trend lines, while the remaining stations were not. Among the nine stations, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is the best fit for five, the Log-Normal for two, the Normal for one, and the Log Pearson Type-III for another, indicating that GEV is the most suitable for rainfall frequency analysis. For the return period, CL325 showed more variation in rainfall, whereas CL302 showed less variation. The findings of this study will enhance the understanding of current rainfall patterns and provide valuable insights into predicting future hydrological extremes, such as intense precipitation and flooding, in the region. Supplementary Material File (figure.docx) Download 1.65 MB File (manuscript_trend and frequency.docx) Download 1.86 MB File (table.docx) Download 28.82 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 09 January 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords bangladesh frequency analysis natural hazards probability distribution function rainfall trend analysis return period Authors Affiliations Md. Mahfuzar Rahman University of Dhaka View all articles by this author Fatema TuzZohora Niha 0009-0001-6628-9500 [email protected] University of Dhaka View all articles by this author Md. Zillur Rahman University of Dhaka View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 217 views 91 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Md. Mahfuzar Rahman, Fatema TuzZohora Niha, Md. Zillur Rahman. Assessment of Rainfall Trends and Rainfall Extremes for Different Return Periods in the Chittagong Region through Trend and Frequency Analysis Using Best-Fit Probability Distributions. Authorea . 09 January 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173641412.24542900/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. 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