Equitable Decarbonization Scenarios for Indian States: Integrating Household Demand-Side Shifts with Multi-Sector Supply-Side Interventions

Equitable Decarbonization Scenarios for Indian States: Integrating Household Demand-Side Shifts with Multi-Sector Supply-Side Interventions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Equitable Decarbonization Scenarios for Indian States: Integrating Household Demand-Side Shifts with Multi-Sector Supply-Side Interventions Shelly Bogra, Felix Creutzig This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8193447/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As the world’s third-largest emitter, India’s ambition to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 prioritizes technocentric, supply-side measures. This strategy, often justified by poverty alleviation, masks deep-rooted inequality and accelerating environmental degradation. Using a high-resolution, state- and settlement-level dataset of household consumption emissions \cite{Bogra2025}, socio-metabolic scenarios to 2050 are constructed that systematically embed considerations of distributive fairness. Under business-as-usual, household emissions rise from 2,605 to over 10,000 MtCO$_2$eq—driven not by food (+43% nationally) but by sharp non-food growth (+278–308%), with rural per capita emissions surpassing urban in 23 of 36 states. Applying the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework \cite{Creutzig2018}, combined interventions (grid decarbonization, nutritionally adequate diets, reduced high-income travel) avoid 4,050 MtCO$_2$eq in 2050, yet residual emissions remain high. Crucially, mitigation potential is spatially uneven: dietary and agronomic shifts yield highest returns in high-food-emission states (e.g., Mizoram: 3.9 tCO$_2$eq/capita), decentralized renewables in high-non-food regions (e.g., rural Gujarat: 16 tCO$_2$eq/capita), and climate-smart intensification in populous states (UP, Bihar, MP). These findings indicate India’s just decarbonization requires move towards socio-metabolic fairness—aligning provisioning systems (food, mobility, energy) with decent living standards within ecological limits. This entails expanding low-carbon infrastructure alongside progressive consumption guidance, spatial design that lowers energy-service intensity, and support for low-emission livelihoods—ensuring climate action strengthens, rather than undermines, equity and sustainability. India household carbon emissions scenarios 2050 urban and rural mitigation potential and gaps Avoid–Shift–Improve framework justice and inequality Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 10 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 16 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 02 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 24 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 24 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8193447","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":550260112,"identity":"96542b07-6518-4bfb-9d35-873d10a72f72","order_by":0,"name":"Shelly Bogra","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAv0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCR4QaQPEjI0HSNGSBtLSQJKWw2A2cVrkZ/cefPh1z3m7te2HgbbU2EQT1GJw51yyscyz28nbziQCtRxLy20gqEUix0xa4sDtZLMDQC2MDYcJa5GfAdZyLtns/EMitTDcyDGT/HDggJ3ZDWJtMbiRl2zMcCA5wewG0JYEYvwiPyP34MMfB+zszc6nP3zwocaGCIcBATMwahLBKhOIUQ4CjD8YGOyJVTwKRsEoGAUjEAAAxplJRgUjkCQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shelly","middleName":"","lastName":"Bogra","suffix":""},{"id":550260113,"identity":"6027758f-9b2b-46b6-9061-78d6671a637b","order_by":1,"name":"Felix Creutzig","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Felix","middleName":"","lastName":"Creutzig","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-24 12:38:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8193447/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8193447/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101752046,"identity":"71daf261-d717-4670-909e-cc7abb3f3d73","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 10:25:05","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1238416,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"JIESubmission112025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8193447/v1_covered_2a509291-5909-4c12-8695-38e9d0f2d357.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Equitable Decarbonization Scenarios for Indian States: Integrating Household Demand-Side Shifts with Multi-Sector Supply-Side Interventions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-industrial-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"44498","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44498/3","title":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"India, household carbon emissions, scenarios 2050, urban and rural, mitigation potential and gaps, Avoid–Shift–Improve framework, justice and inequality","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8193447/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8193447/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"As the world’s third-largest emitter, India’s ambition to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 prioritizes technocentric, supply-side measures. This strategy, often justified by poverty alleviation, masks deep-rooted inequality and accelerating environmental degradation. Using a high-resolution, state- and settlement-level dataset of household consumption emissions \\cite{Bogra2025}, socio-metabolic scenarios to 2050 are constructed that systematically embed considerations of distributive fairness. Under business-as-usual, household emissions rise from 2,605 to over 10,000 MtCO$_2$eq—driven not by food (+43\\% nationally) but by sharp non-food growth (+278–308\\%), with rural per capita emissions surpassing urban in 23 of 36 states. Applying the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework \\cite{Creutzig2018}, combined interventions (grid decarbonization, nutritionally adequate diets, reduced high-income travel) avoid 4,050 MtCO$_2$eq in 2050, yet residual emissions remain high. Crucially, mitigation potential is spatially uneven: dietary and agronomic shifts yield highest returns in high-food-emission states (e.g., Mizoram: 3.9 tCO$_2$eq/capita), decentralized renewables in high-non-food regions (e.g., rural Gujarat: 16 tCO$_2$eq/capita), and climate-smart intensification in populous states (UP, Bihar, MP). These findings indicate India’s just decarbonization requires move towards socio-metabolic fairness—aligning provisioning systems (food, mobility, energy) with decent living standards within ecological limits. 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