Climate Change Impact on The Urban Heat Island Effect Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios: a Study Case of Busan City

Climate Change Impact on The Urban Heat Island Effect Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios: a Study Case of Busan City | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Climate Change Impact on The Urban Heat Island Effect Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios: a Study Case of Busan City Ismail Robbani, Jurng-Jae Yee This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7459278/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This research uses Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios to examine how climate change affects the urban heat island (UHI) effect in Busan City, South Korea. Urban areas consistently experience higher temperatures than rural ones, a trend worsened by climate change and urbanization. This study assesses regional and temporal temperature patterns using a comprehensive analysis of temperature data from thirteen urban and six rural weather stations (2010–2014), as well as a projection (2015–2054) of a future model under different SSP Scenarios. The concept uses quantile mapping as a statistical downscaling technique to improve global climate model outputs from coarse resolution (0.25°) to fine-scale urban applications (0.01°). The findings demonstrate that whereas urban regions continuously have warmer temperatures than rural ones, the intensity of the UHI varies over time and depending on the situation. There are also noticeable seasonal asymmetries, such as notable winter warming and exceptional summer cooling. According to previous studies, eastern Busan has historically experienced higher temperatures than adjacent rural areas, and this pattern is expected to intensify under both SSP scenarios, particularly SSP585. Interestingly, while winter warming significantly increases (by up to 5–7°C) by 2050, summer temperatures decrease by 3–5°C, as compared to usual temperatures. Although there is a consistent urban temperature excess, linear regression and correlation analysis reveal a substantial link between urban and rural temperature trends. The significant connection between urban and rural temperature variations suggests that while large-scale climatic forces affect both settings, urban regions experience a permanent temperature excess. These findings have important implications for urban planning and climate adaptation plans, underlining the need for focused measures to address the compound effects of climate change and urban heat. Climatology Meteorology Urban Studies Climate Analysis and Modeling temperature projection climate change Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSPs CMIP6 downscaling urban climate Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7459278","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":505611637,"identity":"977e3849-4f18-4818-9361-3e608d2daae0","order_by":0,"name":"Ismail Robbani","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9698-0235","institution":"Dong-A University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ismail","middleName":"","lastName":"Robbani","suffix":""},{"id":505611638,"identity":"300e0093-5019-4638-bc78-1a64419a8ef3","order_by":1,"name":"Jurng-Jae Yee","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAt0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxoYDQLKCGco9QLSWM6RogehrI0ULc+MZwwcf51nLGxxgfviB4cw9Yhx2xthw5rZ0ww0H2IwlGG4UE6XFTJp322HGDQcYzBgYPiQQpcX89985h+03HGD/RrQWM2bGhsOJGw7wAG25QZSWY8WSPcfSk2ce5imWSDhDhBbDGYc3fvhRY23bd7x944cPx4jScsIAwgJFDREaGBjk+dsfEKNuFIyCUTAKRjIAAN1NQM1HhIdqAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Dong-A University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jurng-Jae","middleName":"","lastName":"Yee","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-26 06:18:04","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7459278/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7459278/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":89994223,"identity":"1df4145d-b0b1-4378-8e42-2863a835d2ce","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-27 07:50:05","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2071106,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ClimateChangeImpactonTheUrbanHeatIslandEffectBasedonSharedSocioeconomicPathwayScenariosSSPsinBusanCity.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7459278/v1_covered_1fbae654-81af-4fb6-a310-1ccf45be0fdd.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eClimate Change Impact on The Urban Heat Island Effect Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios: a Study Case of Busan City\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Dong-A University","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"temperature projection, climate change, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs, CMIP6, downscaling, urban climate","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7459278/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7459278/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis research uses Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios to examine how climate change affects the urban heat island (UHI) effect in Busan City, South Korea. 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