Seven Years Without Recovery:U.S.-China Trade Under Section 301 Tariffs

Seven Years Without Recovery:U.S.-China Trade Under Section 301 Tariffs | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Seven Years Without Recovery:U.S.-China Trade Under Section 301 Tariffs Tuğba Ortay Baykal This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8724796/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper investigates the persistence of U.S.-China trade disruption following Section 301 tariff implementation in July 2018. Using a difference-in-differences framework on monthly import data for 178 intermediate goods across 14 trading partners through October 2025, we document the longest post-tariff observation window in this literature. Our analysis reveals that Chinese imports declined approximately 58 percent relative to control countries with no sustained recovery over 88 months. The import gap widened rather than narrowed: event study coefficients increase from − 0.45 at 1–6 months to -1.52 at 73 + months post-tariff. Trade diverted substantially to Vietnam (+ 891%), Thailand (+ 161%), and other alternative suppliers. Our key contribution is this temporal documentation: seven years of persistently depressed bilateral trade suggests permanent supply chain restructuring rather than temporary adjustment. This finding underscores the long-run consequences of trade policy uncertainty for global sourcing decisions. JEL Classification: F13, F14, F23, F51 Section 301 tariffs U.S.-China trade trade policy difference-in-differences trade diversion supply chains Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8724796","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":585070177,"identity":"b17b673a-8099-421f-8983-6ba25a3a484b","order_by":0,"name":"Tuğba Ortay Baykal","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACNjiLsYGBQQ7EOPAAj3oeqBYJmBZjsJYEUrQkNoBY+LTYS6Rfe/Cj4l4d/4z0iw9n1Nikzw87/BBoi52cbgMOWyRyyg17zhRLSNzIKTbccCwtd+PtNAOglmRjswM4taRJ8LYlSDDcyEmTfNhwOHfj7ASQlgOJ2/BokfwL1CIP0fI/3XB2+gcCWtKPSYNsMbiRfkxyY8OBBHnpHAK2nHnDbixzJkFy45k3zIYzjiUbbpDOKTiQYIDbL+zt6c8evqlI4Jc7nv7wYU+Nnbz87PTNHz5U2Mnh0gK0xwBCC+RAGAZglQa4lIPteQCh+Y9DGPIN+FSPglEwCkbBSAQASpxmQEIAy/QAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Istanbul Commerce University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tuğba","middleName":"Ortay","lastName":"Baykal","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-28 19:53:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8724796/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8724796/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101943107,"identity":"93902fc6-9dd2-42af-acf3-92daacd3cd89","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-05 09:40:26","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":717628,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Tradewar.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8724796/v1_covered_5a16ae3e-7004-4834-86bd-2c8ca73812db.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Seven Years Without Recovery:U.S.-China Trade Under Section 301 Tariffs","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Section 301 tariffs, U.S.-China trade, trade policy, difference-in-differences, trade diversion, supply chains","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8724796/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8724796/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper investigates the persistence of U.S.-China trade disruption following Section 301 tariff implementation in July 2018. 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