Comparison of Dam Inflow Generation Techniques for Assessing Drought Coping Capacity

Comparison of Dam Inflow Generation Techniques for Assessing Drought Coping Capacity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Comparison of Dam Inflow Generation Techniques for Assessing Drought Coping Capacity Joohyung Lee, Young-Oh Kim This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5258673/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Heavy rainfall during flood seasons has become more concentrated, whereas rainfall during dry seasons has decreased, owing to the impacts of climate change. Despite similar average annual precipitation, this phenomenon has led to the occurrence of stronger and more localized droughts. To address this issue, the Korea Water Resources Corporation (K-water) adopted the K-water disaggregation method (KDM) to manage dam operations efficiently by considering regional characteristics. KDM calculates the monthly inflow for the upcoming year using the correlation between the annual and monthly inflow frequency analysis results. However, the current implementation of KDM, which provides a single scenario, often exhibits significant discrepancies from the observed inflow. To overcome this limitation, this study proposes incorporating uncertainty through a disaggregation model to enhance the accuracy of inflow estimation. Thus, a wider range of inflow scenarios can be considered, thereby enhancing the strategy for dam operations. This study compared the inflow scenarios generated by two different methods and assessed the corresponding drought coping capacities expected from operating dams under these scenarios. The drought coping capacity assessment included calculating the Supply-day (S-day) and dam storage performance measures. The results indicated that KDM generally showed a lower S-day during the water supply seasons and exhibited a lower dam storage performance than the disaggregation method inflow scenarios. Consequently, the single scenario provided by KDM may distort the potential inflow scenarios for the target dam. Considering a range of monthly scenarios for an annual drought quantile proved advantageous for assessing drought coping capacity. This study issues a broader warning, not only for Korea but also for other countries, about the risks of relying on a single scenario for determining next-year drought inflows, which may increase the likelihood of encountering more severe droughts than anticipated. Drought coping capacity Disaggregation model Supply-day FDM framework Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5258673","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":372241846,"identity":"9e08458a-7e55-4d45-9943-b0e5da511669","order_by":0,"name":"Joohyung Lee","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA00lEQVRIie3RsQqCUBTG8SPCbbnk+oniMxjCralnuSHUIhG0CjnlEvkAvUQQNN/J6Uaruy+gS2PU0hBE2tZw/9sZfpwDh8hk+tOs9p5unNeEPsQGK6Wb/UKIM1uGqi8Z53ndgLNldL2UoHRK7kF9J77WAiv4a1Et56AyJm8ovxMgYYSQWeeKCxBTFPCOw4BF3XBpW6fiuY7uvYgMwZU9O1IiYG0VeZ2Ea+G5WRmhSqLJbB9zd9dFBnndtlkaOIUeVc1tGkB3kPfk80c/AZPJZDJ97gFURDbGDCZRWwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0689-6303","institution":"Seoul National University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joohyung","middleName":"","lastName":"Lee","suffix":""},{"id":372241847,"identity":"dcc55942-eff8-47ba-a03c-0d1d450c1ec4","order_by":1,"name":"Young-Oh Kim","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Seoul National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Young-Oh","middleName":"","lastName":"Kim","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-10-14 06:52:49","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5258673/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5258673/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":93313211,"identity":"9bbfae96-7f31-44c3-9940-9ac8b31abe29","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-11 21:19:11","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1674121,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"LeeKim.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5258673/v1_covered_a3e6a4d6-ff30-44c9-b9c6-6dc49bf3aebb.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Comparison of Dam Inflow Generation Techniques for Assessing Drought Coping Capacity","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Drought coping capacity, Disaggregation model, Supply-day, FDM framework","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5258673/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5258673/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eHeavy rainfall during flood seasons has become more concentrated, whereas rainfall during dry seasons has decreased, owing to the impacts of climate change. 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