Ecosystem Service-based Flood Risk Assessment for the Pearl River Basin

Ecosystem Service-based Flood Risk Assessment for the Pearl River Basin | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Ecosystem Service-based Flood Risk Assessment for the Pearl River Basin Qian Guo, Kunlun Xiang, Chenxi Wang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7137656/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Regulating flood risk based on ecosystem services like water conservation has been widely adopted, but quantitative methods often fail to decouple the effects of precipitation from land cover. This study proposes a new perspective on assessing flood risk by analyzing the partitioning of precipitation into water conservation and surface runoff, using multi-source data from the Pearl River Basin (2020–2022). In this study, the InVEST model simulated hydrological components, with outputs closely matching observed runoff data. Ratios of precipitation converted into water conservation and quick flow are proposed as novel indicators to assess a basin’s flood mitigation capacity and risk level, respectively. Results show that while precipitation is the primary driver, land use is the key modulator. Sub-basins with high forest cover (e.g., Beijiang, > 60%) exhibit high water conservation conversion ratios (> 0.30), indicating strong flood mitigation potential. Conversely, the highly urbanized Pearl River Delta (21.67% built-up area) shows the highest quick flow conversion ratio (0.24), resulting in a significantly higher flood risk under equivalent rainfall conditions. This study substantiates the practical application of using precipitation partitioning as a tool for flood risk assessment, highlighting the critical need for integrating land use planning and green infrastructure development into regional flood mitigation strategies. Water Conservation Flood Precipitation Water Balance Pearl River Basin Full Text Supplementary Files Highlights.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Aug, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 17 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 16 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7137656","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":503690651,"identity":"5d7e8dfc-a8f6-40df-b143-18b0d3ed41c0","order_by":0,"name":"Qian Guo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACfobzHwwSKtjk+NkbiNQi2XjAoODDGT5jyZ4DRGoxOHzA4OPMNrnEDTMSiLWl7UDiZt42s8QNko833mCosYkmqIWf58BhY55zacbbpdOKLRiOpeU2ELRlxsE2Y56yY7I7Z+eYSTA2HCasxeD+Y/bfPGz/GTfcPEOslgPHGAxntLEpbrjBQ6QWyYYzDAYfzrABAxnolwRi/MLPANQCicrDG298qLEhrAXFkRIJpCiHaCFVxygYBaNgFIwMAAAFy0W75g1VNwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Guangzhou Meteorological Satellite Ground Station","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qian","middleName":"","lastName":"Guo","suffix":""},{"id":503690652,"identity":"58f6b77f-b372-4142-bdb3-6e11698bea91","order_by":1,"name":"Kunlun Xiang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guangdong Eco-Meteorological Center","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kunlun","middleName":"","lastName":"Xiang","suffix":""},{"id":503690653,"identity":"2fdc3953-ca7f-48da-a6e0-36dca23b4b85","order_by":2,"name":"Chenxi Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guangzhou Meteorological Satellite Ground Station","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chenxi","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-16 08:37:45","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7137656/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7137656/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":90165317,"identity":"e0821ceb-d619-496d-90e5-758319b14f67","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-29 10:02:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1050956,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MainDocument.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7137656/v1_covered_37e0fd19-bdab-4244-bfd9-c8ea50bfb8b6.pdf"},{"id":90163416,"identity":"b5571a9b-9839-42b5-a6a1-9c8fc15cb6a9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-29 09:38:57","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":15350,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Highlights.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7137656/v1/24419543d719b09e8c9784c1.docx"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Ecosystem Service-based Flood Risk Assessment for the Pearl River Basin","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Water Conservation, Flood, Precipitation, Water Balance, Pearl River Basin","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7137656/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7137656/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eRegulating flood risk based on ecosystem services like water conservation has been widely adopted, but quantitative methods often fail to decouple the effects of precipitation from land cover. This study proposes a new perspective on assessing flood risk by analyzing the partitioning of precipitation into water conservation and surface runoff, using multi-source data from the Pearl River Basin (2020\u0026ndash;2022). In this study, the InVEST model simulated hydrological components, with outputs closely matching observed runoff data. Ratios of precipitation converted into water conservation and quick flow are proposed as novel indicators to assess a basin\u0026rsquo;s flood mitigation capacity and risk level, respectively. Results show that while precipitation is the primary driver, land use is the key modulator. Sub-basins with high forest cover (e.g., Beijiang, \u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;60%) exhibit high water conservation conversion ratios (\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;0.30), indicating strong flood mitigation potential. Conversely, the highly urbanized Pearl River Delta (21.67% built-up area) shows the highest quick flow conversion ratio (0.24), resulting in a significantly higher flood risk under equivalent rainfall conditions. This study substantiates the practical application of using precipitation partitioning as a tool for flood risk assessment, highlighting the critical need for integrating land use planning and green infrastructure development into regional flood mitigation strategies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Ecosystem Service-based Flood Risk Assessment for the Pearl River Basin","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-29 09:30:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7137656/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-08-24T00:54:00+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-08-21T13:20:42+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-07-18T02:58:48+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Natural Hazards","date":"2025-07-16T22:40:32+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d01e1a91-27a5-42e7-aeac-d9330a7bd901","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 29th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-29T09:30:52+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-29 09:30:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7137656","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7137656","identity":"rs-7137656","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}