Sea Ice Fractures in a Warming World: Projected Changes in Leads and Ridges

Sea Ice Fractures in a Warming World: Projected Changes in Leads and Ridges | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Sea Ice Fractures in a Warming World: Projected Changes in Leads and Ridges Jan Gärtner, Thomas Jung, Xinyue Li, Nils Hutter This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6128512/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Linear Kinematic Features (LKFs) --- narrow bands of deformation forming fractures (leads) and ridges in sea ice --- are crucial to the polar climate system, significantly influencing heat, moisture, and momentum exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. Despite their importance, their response to warming remains poorly understood due to observational and modeling challenges. Using high-resolution (4.5 km) FESOM2 simulations, we project substantial LKF changes from 1986 to 2100 under SSP585 (+4°C global warming). The most dramatic transformations begin in the 2020s, with increased winter LKF occurrence. By the late 21st century, winter LKFs increasingly resembles today’s summer conditions, driven by thinning ice and intensified ocean currents and winds. These changes signal a fundamental shift in the Arctic system, with dual implications: leads may enhance navigability, while ridges increase shipping risks. This study advances understanding of sea ice dynamics and highlights the need for integrated strategies to address emerging Arctic challenges. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files lkfpapersupplementmaterial.pdf Supplement Material Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6128512","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":428369401,"identity":"3c9b5ab5-da4c-4a02-a4a4-6ec644c929dd","order_by":0,"name":"Jan Gärtner","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5klEQVRIie2OPQrCQBBGZ1lImgHbgAGvsCGNguhVhIVUi7lAioAQG3/agJcJLKSzF2wUwSpFRAmp1GwKsVotBfdVM8M8vg/AYPhBSPy+lQAIMPlSQbWk3ygvlEKxHT8odL7NyC0ahuPuLL8OI+mCzTN9scV0Qt08GCzcnG9ELhHwrI8hsWDUsSRDR/hUWHsERzC9si4a5f5olPBK+3elhKVeSQUjlyRTKZSSpE3RGo1SMElWnOEu8Mly9UALz/pi3lp4x7oaMTvlJ6irYNyx+UGvxAAS3y+WvhZAT5WrP30ZDAbDf/ME4+s/vARNBJgAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8460-7358","institution":"Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jan","middleName":"","lastName":"Gärtner","suffix":""},{"id":428369402,"identity":"1ba2a7e6-59cb-4662-a269-f852509a83a7","order_by":1,"name":"Thomas Jung","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2651-1293","institution":"Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thomas","middleName":"","lastName":"Jung","suffix":""},{"id":428369403,"identity":"1ccecf55-6198-41e8-a387-a56da8354596","order_by":2,"name":"Xinyue Li","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3065-9191","institution":"Alfred Wegener Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xinyue","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":428369404,"identity":"5de776a7-428a-45a1-868b-6cab21c91de9","order_by":3,"name":"Nils Hutter","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"GEOMAR, Helmholtz Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, Kiel, Germany","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nils","middleName":"","lastName":"Hutter","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-02-28 12:15:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6128512/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6128512/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":79728457,"identity":"dd7aef7c-debb-414d-ae9f-20d104f0cbb2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-02 04:51:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":7737033,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"lkfpaper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6128512/v1_covered_8fb6472a-b73c-41b2-b8ed-243da8e92349.pdf"},{"id":79728145,"identity":"eecdbeaf-84c2-4248-a535-fd2f810c15a3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-02 04:43:15","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":431390,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplement Material","description":"","filename":"lkfpapersupplementmaterial.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6128512/v1/70e99ca3f1f34ce7d2fac122.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Sea Ice Fractures in a Warming World: Projected Changes in Leads and Ridges","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6128512/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6128512/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Linear Kinematic Features (LKFs) --- narrow bands of deformation forming fractures (leads) and ridges in sea ice --- are crucial to the polar climate system, significantly influencing heat, moisture, and momentum exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. 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