Climate Change Impacts on Ecological Connectivity of Marine Protected Areas in the Yangtze River Estuary and Adjacent Waters

Climate Change Impacts on Ecological Connectivity of Marine Protected Areas in the Yangtze River Estuary and Adjacent Waters | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Climate Change Impacts on Ecological Connectivity of Marine Protected Areas in the Yangtze River Estuary and Adjacent Waters Han Dong, Jian Ma, Guodong Li, Zhenkun Bian, Qingqiang Ren, Wei Huang, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7832411/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Marine protected areas (MPAs) are vital for conserving marine biodiversity and managing fishery resources. Ecological connectivity, defined as the interconnection between populations, communities, ecosystems, or habitats through the exchange of genes, organisms, nutrients, and energy, plays a fundamental role in ecosystem resilience and is a key factor in the design of effective marine protected areas (MPAs). Both MPAs and the connectivity between them are increasingly threatened by climate change, yet the impact on connectivity patterns remains poorly understood. Focusing on the economically and ecologically significant migratory fish species Coilia mystus , Harpadon nehereus , and Larimichthys crocea , we evaluated the impacts of climate change on ecological connectivity (including ecological corridor effective resistance, electric current density, and pinch-point areas) of MPAs in the Yangtze River estuary and adjacent waters. We constructed resistance surfaces based on environmental gradients by predicting potential suitable habitats for the target species and identified the least-cost ecological corridors and key migration pinch points under current and future scenarios. Our key findings include: 1) C. mystus is projected to experience significant reductions in habitat suitability and area, while H. nehereus is expected to see an increase in habitat area but a decrease in habitat suitability and L. crocea is projected to experience habitat expansion overall. 2) Under future climate scenarios, the electric current density between MPAs is expected to decrease for C. mystus , but increase for H. nehereus and L. crocea . 3) For H. nehereus and L. crocea , corridor resistance is expected to decrease, particularly along the northern Yangtze River estuary, while C. mystus will experience a significant increase in corridor resistance, indicating greater migration challenges. 4) The pinch points will decrease for L. crocea , remain stable for H. nehereus , and increase for C. mystus . This study emphasizes the importance of incorporating climate resilience and connectivity into MPA assessment and design, while considering species-specific dispersal and future migration patterns. Marine protected areas (MPAs) Climate change Connectivity Circuit theory Species distribution model (SDM) Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files TableS1.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 19 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 13 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 12 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 14 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 14 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 11 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7832411","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":537518098,"identity":"f2706d62-6a35-4c15-8f14-f70134259495","order_by":0,"name":"Han Dong","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai Jiao Tong University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Han","middleName":"","lastName":"Dong","suffix":""},{"id":537518101,"identity":"a6c93b86-3959-431f-bc28-d0385884b18a","order_by":1,"name":"Jian Ma","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai Jiao Tong 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Ecological connectivity, defined as the interconnection between populations, communities, ecosystems, or habitats through the exchange of genes, organisms, nutrients, and energy, plays a fundamental role in ecosystem resilience and is a key factor in the design of effective marine protected areas (MPAs). Both MPAs and the connectivity between them are increasingly threatened by climate change, yet the impact on connectivity patterns remains poorly understood. Focusing on the economically and ecologically significant migratory fish species \u003cem\u003eCoilia mystus\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eHarpadon nehereus\u003c/em\u003e, and \u003cem\u003eLarimichthys crocea\u003c/em\u003e, we evaluated the impacts of climate change on ecological connectivity (including ecological corridor effective resistance, electric current density, and pinch-point areas) of MPAs in the Yangtze River estuary and adjacent waters. We constructed resistance surfaces based on environmental gradients by predicting potential suitable habitats for the target species and identified the least-cost ecological corridors and key migration pinch points under current and future scenarios. Our key findings include: 1) \u003cem\u003eC. mystus\u003c/em\u003e is projected to experience significant reductions in habitat suitability and area, while \u003cem\u003eH. nehereus\u003c/em\u003e is expected to see an increase in habitat area but a decrease in habitat suitability and \u003cem\u003eL. crocea\u003c/em\u003e is projected to experience habitat expansion overall. 2) Under future climate scenarios, the electric current density between MPAs is expected to decrease for \u003cem\u003eC. mystus\u003c/em\u003e, but increase for \u003cem\u003eH. nehereus\u003c/em\u003e and \u003cem\u003eL. crocea\u003c/em\u003e. 3) For \u003cem\u003eH. nehereus\u003c/em\u003e and \u003cem\u003eL. crocea\u003c/em\u003e, corridor resistance is expected to decrease, particularly along the northern Yangtze River estuary, while \u003cem\u003eC. mystus\u003c/em\u003e will experience a significant increase in corridor resistance, indicating greater migration challenges. 4) The pinch points will decrease for \u003cem\u003eL. crocea\u003c/em\u003e, remain stable for \u003cem\u003eH. nehereus\u003c/em\u003e, and increase for \u003cem\u003eC. mystus\u003c/em\u003e. This study emphasizes the importance of incorporating climate resilience and connectivity into MPA assessment and design, while considering species-specific dispersal and future migration patterns.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Climate Change Impacts on Ecological Connectivity of Marine Protected Areas in the Yangtze River Estuary and Adjacent Waters","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-31 10:34:58","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7832411/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-03-19T18:00:24+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-01-14T03:52:57+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-12T05:23:16+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"172555026547136472109626139543114064922","date":"2025-11-01T16:35:44+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"75785129899773034593568424246913137791","date":"2025-11-01T11:41:33+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"163175043243782754506046095738445988542","date":"2025-10-29T18:45:42+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"114328219632984385543052386525593282530","date":"2025-10-27T14:59:58+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-21T12:17:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-14T07:14:51+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-10-14T07:13:57+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries","date":"2025-10-11T06:26:01+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"reviews-in-fish-biology-and-fisheries","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries](https://link.springer.com/journal/11160)","snPcode":"11160","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11160/3","title":"Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"6f5e0f59-0d83-4914-a1bd-4390ac413911","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 31st, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-30T02:40:02+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-31 10:34:58","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7832411","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7832411","identity":"rs-7832411","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}