Surface water connectivity is unstable in European Ramsar wetlands

Surface water connectivity is unstable in European Ramsar wetlands | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Surface water connectivity is unstable in European Ramsar wetlands Abigail Robinson, Fernando Jaramillo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9074104/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Wetland restoration under the EU Nature Restoration Law prioritises the recovery of surface water connectivity, yet our understanding of how water moves and connects in European wetlands remains largely unknown, hindering effective restoration and monitoring. To address this, we analysed ~50 European Ramsar wetlands between 2015 and 2024 using satellite-derived surface water extent data and connectivity metrics. We found that ~80% of wetlands showed highly variable and unpredictable connectivity patterns across years, despite their protected status. Connectivity dynamics also showed a strong latitudinal gradient (r = 0.67, p = <0.05): northern wetlands displayed regular, seasonal connectivity patterns closely linked to precipitation and temperature, whereas continental wetlands showed erratic, highly variable connectivity behaviour decoupled from climate. While Scandinavian wetlands provide a reliable baseline for restoration, many continental wetlands lack predictable connectivity regimes and are weakly related to hydroclimatic inputs, suggesting that connectivity has been altered by human interventions within the wetlands and their catchments. Furthermore, ~10% of wetlands had connectivity dynamics that did not match water extent patterns, demonstrating that extent alone can misrepresent wetland hydrological functioning. Together, our results show that restoration should account for differences in connectivity regimes. By establishing where baselines exist and where they are absent, this study provides guidance for monitoring, prioritising, and designing restoration strategies adapted to the hydroclimatic and surface water connectivity context of individual wetlands. Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Planetary science/Hydrology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementarydata.xlsx Dataset 1 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9074104","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":606618977,"identity":"11e35618-6903-488c-b748-57644494b75a","order_by":0,"name":"Abigail Robinson","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9884-2937","institution":"Stockholm University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abigail","middleName":"","lastName":"Robinson","suffix":""},{"id":606618978,"identity":"702ad668-e2b7-4864-8824-f8c6adf099c2","order_by":1,"name":"Fernando Jaramillo","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6769-0136","institution":"Stockholm University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fernando","middleName":"","lastName":"Jaramillo","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-09 14:18:34","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9074104/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9074104/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105564468,"identity":"e0cd019b-3804-4ceb-9612-ece1d1eb7ef2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-27 12:49:40","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2448631,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ConnectivitystabilityRobinson.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9074104/v1_covered_ce94b220-701a-473c-8be1-50c3407e1230.pdf"},{"id":105341970,"identity":"dee15a44-dfe4-499b-ac07-8c735261bc6d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-25 03:03:37","extension":"xlsx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":10120061,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Dataset 1","description":"","filename":"Supplementarydata.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9074104/v1/110b177b9a342b16773392f8.xlsx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Surface water connectivity is unstable in European Ramsar wetlands","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9074104/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9074104/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Wetland restoration under the EU Nature Restoration Law prioritises the recovery of surface water connectivity, yet our understanding of how water moves and connects in European wetlands remains largely unknown, hindering effective restoration and monitoring. To address this, we analysed ~50 European Ramsar wetlands between 2015 and 2024 using satellite-derived surface water extent data and connectivity metrics. We found that ~80% of wetlands showed highly variable and unpredictable connectivity patterns across years, despite their protected status. Connectivity dynamics also showed a strong latitudinal gradient (r = 0.67, p = \u003c0.05): northern wetlands displayed regular, seasonal connectivity patterns closely linked to precipitation and temperature, whereas continental wetlands showed erratic, highly variable connectivity behaviour decoupled from climate. While Scandinavian wetlands provide a reliable baseline for restoration, many continental wetlands lack predictable connectivity regimes and are weakly related to hydroclimatic inputs, suggesting that connectivity has been altered by human interventions within the wetlands and their catchments. 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