Anthropocene Imperilment of Ancient Diversity and Evolutionary Potential in Terrestrial Vertebrates

Anthropocene Imperilment of Ancient Diversity and Evolutionary Potential in Terrestrial Vertebrates | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Biological Sciences - Article Anthropocene Imperilment of Ancient Diversity and Evolutionary Potential in Terrestrial Vertebrates Robert Pyron, Mario Moura, Rauri Bowie, Selma Brito, Karoline Ceron, and 15 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7556378/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The ecological and evolutionary consequences of ongoing extinction episodes remain poorly understood1, despite mounting evidence of global biodiversity loss. To assess how human activities are reshaping tetrapod evolution, we estimate species-level extinction probabilities (‘pEX’) over the next ~50–500 years2,3 using time-calibrated phylogenies4–8, 35 ecological and environmental attributes9, and current-day, expert-assessed threats for 33,281 terrestrial vertebrates2. We find a critical, divergent association between extinction risk and macroevolutionary patterns10: in birds, lizards, and snakes, both evolutionary distinct and rapidly diversifying lineages are most imperiled; while in amphibians and mammals, threat is concentrated in less distinct and slowly radiating groups. Overall, species with high fecundity, intermediate body sizes, and broad geographic ranges are more likely to persist through the ongoing extinction crisis11–14. Without intervention, current-day threats alone suggest a 15% decline (~5,000 extinctions) in species richness and a 16% loss in median speciation rate from 0.11 to 0.094 lineages per million years within the next 500 years. Notably, mammals are projected to experience the largest declines in future speciation potential, despite lower overall imperilment than turtles, crocodilians, or amphibians. Across tetrapods, projected evolutionary distinct extinctions are concentrated in tropical regions, whereas faster-radiating lineages face widespread risk across deserts, tropical islands, and temperate zones. These results uncover ecological and evolutionary drivers of the ongoing reorganization of Earth’s biodiversity, underscoring the urgent need for coordinated conservation efforts to preserve both deep evolutionary history and future potential for evolutionary responses. Biological sciences/Evolution/Phylogenetics Biological sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files tetrapod1.0SupplementaryInformation3September2025.pdf Supplementary Information – Pyron et al. Tetrapod Extinction Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7556378","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Biological Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":519927539,"identity":"db499005-151b-4ab1-b269-2952d37abb67","order_by":0,"name":"Robert 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