Repair, Capacity, and Collapse: A Mechanistic Early-Warning Model of Political Rupture

Repair, Capacity, and Collapse: A Mechanistic Early-Warning Model of Political Rupture | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Repair, Capacity, and Collapse: A Mechanistic Early-Warning Model of Political Rupture David Koepsell This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8006568/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Governance ruptures, coups, revolutions, and state collapses, occur when the capacity for repair fails to match accumulating violations of legitimacy, security, or welfare. This article introduces a Contradiction Debt (CD) model that formalizes this imbalance as the ratio of effective repair to total violation (R/V). Building on theories of grievance, capacity, and legitimacy (Gurr; Hirschman; Fearon & Laitin; Tilly; Skocpol), the CD framework quantifies how “repair deficits” erode trust and predict rupture timing. Using quarterly data from fifty-two cases (2005–2025), the model achieves discrimination comparable to leading indices (AUROC ≈ 0.54) but superior temporal precision, forecasting most ruptures within ± one quarter. Logistic regressions controlling for standard predictors show that the R/V ratio retains independent explanatory power, while decision-curve analysis confirms practical gains for preventive action. By linking grievances and state capacity through a measurable repair process, the CD model transforms opaque early-warning signals into interpretable diagnostics of governance strain, complementing event-based systems such as ACLED and ViEWS. Philosophy political collapse rupture contradiction debt repair social modelling Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8006568","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":538491246,"identity":"e8ad6258-0eb0-4648-9ad0-774c84d17dfd","order_by":0,"name":"David 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This article introduces a \u003cb\u003eContradiction Debt (CD)\u003c/b\u003e model that formalizes this imbalance as the ratio of effective repair to total violation (R/V). Building on theories of grievance, capacity, and legitimacy (Gurr; Hirschman; Fearon \u0026amp; Laitin; Tilly; Skocpol), the CD framework quantifies how \u0026ldquo;repair deficits\u0026rdquo; erode trust and predict rupture timing. Using quarterly data from fifty-two cases (2005\u0026ndash;2025), the model achieves discrimination comparable to leading indices (AUROC\u0026thinsp;\u0026asymp;\u0026thinsp;0.54) but superior temporal precision, forecasting most ruptures within \u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;one quarter. Logistic regressions controlling for standard predictors show that the R/V ratio retains independent explanatory power, while decision-curve analysis confirms practical gains for preventive action. 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