Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELMs) for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) around The Southern off-coast of Sumatra - West Java

Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELMs) for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) around The Southern off-coast of Sumatra - West Java | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELMs) for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) around The Southern off-coast of Sumatra - West Java Wahyu Triyoso This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5080023/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Feb, 2025 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the application of time-independent models for the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELMs) earthquake forecast testing based on the modified probability gain (mG) for seismic hazard study and analysis (SHA) in the southern off-coast of Sumatra-West Java utilizing a 15 years Region Time Length (RTL). This study used a declustered catalog of shallow earthquakes, dividing it into two observation periods: 1978–1992 and 1993-June 2006. Two rate models were developed to estimate earthquake occurrence probability for a given magnitude and time window. The normalized probability gain between these two observation periods was then calculated, leading to the mG estimation. The mG, in turn, provides insights into seismicity patterns for the SHA. The SHA model was constructed using a uniform background seismicity rate model based on the declustered earthquake with M w ≥ 5.0, weighted by the mG. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) vs. exceedance probability over 50 years was estimated and evaluated for several sites. They are Bengkulu, Liwa, and Kota Agung. They incorporated an amplification factor derived from the horizontal-vertical Spectral Ratio method, which allows for the estimation of surface PGA values. This research suggested a better understanding of future seismic hazards and informs mitigation efforts before large earthquakes. RELMs modified Probability Gain SHA PGA Amplification Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Full Text Additional Declarations Table 1 is available in the Supplementary Files section. Supplementary Files Table1.tif Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Feb, 2025 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Accept 27 Jan, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Nov, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Nov, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 16 Nov, 2024 First submitted to journal 15 Nov, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5080023","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":380372362,"identity":"036b2af9-bdc3-4eab-934e-9eb52e4ac11d","order_by":0,"name":"Wahyu Triyoso","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCAyCCH0QkFBCjng2qRbIBpMWASC1gYADWSIwWg/u9Dw/zVNTJGZ9fnfjhgQGDPL/YAQJajrEbHOY5c9jY7MbbzRJAhxnOnJ2AX4vZMTaGw7xtBxK33Ti7AaQlweA2cVrqEjfPOLv5BylamBM38PduI84W+2NpDAfnAP0icYN3m0WCgQRhv0g2H2P+8AYYYvz9Zzff/FFhI88vTUALCDDxgEgJsEoJwspBgPEHiOQ/QJzqUTAKRsEoGHkAAEicRWYgMjkEAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8561-839X","institution":"Institut Teknologi Bandung","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wahyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Triyoso","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-09-12 22:14:46","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5080023/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5080023/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07157-8","type":"published","date":"2025-02-07T15:58:27+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":69570186,"identity":"9563d012-d2b2-4b9d-a5df-e149e2cd624a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-21 18:39:14","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":262038,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe complete earthquake catalog with M\u003csub\u003ew\u003c/sub\u003e ≥ 4.7 with a maximum depth of 50km of 1963-2010 (A), and the declustered of Figure 1A\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003e(B).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5080023/v1/e0bf0a2c998263c3754c5b8a.png"},{"id":69570089,"identity":"4cb9b1f5-cec1-4129-8031-392b856a11a0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-21 18:39:06","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":272648,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe period of relative seismic quiescence (P2) compared to (P1) (A). The seismicity smoothing models use the recommended correlation distance of 75km \u003cstrong\u003e(Frankel, 1995)\u003c/strong\u003e of P1 (B) and P2 (C).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5080023/v1/fe6c7f01f75f3ebc60e115ed.png"},{"id":69570091,"identity":"1b85d33d-bb2c-42d0-b663-3f1011c5a5a0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-21 18:39:09","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":152866,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe Site amplification for BMKG stations. They are Bengkulu, Liwa, and Kota Agung \u003cstrong\u003e(Triyoso et al., 2022, Suwondo, 2020)\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure3revised.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5080023/v1/e6dad02db58ef3b9e6fcea9c.png"},{"id":69570090,"identity":"17ad8356-3c22-4990-9909-1eca43a9c01f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-21 18:39:08","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":362834,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eProbability gains (mG) overlaid with the shallow large main shock events of 2006 to 2020 (A) and 1900 to 1977 (B).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5080023/v1/7a74b149544522c31368b52a.png"},{"id":69570542,"identity":"03cded29-a25f-4f77-9e0f-f484cb436eef","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-21 18:47:12","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":289475,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe PGA estimation is based on the MPE of the source model in the southern off-coast of Sumatra (A) - West Java (B). The source model is based on Table 1.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure5revised.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5080023/v1/9feade574c5d3e400be0da0c.png"},{"id":69570133,"identity":"6f24ef76-1172-4ede-b982-a6b80abac64b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-21 18:39:12","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":151709,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe seismic hazard curve for various sites representing peak ground acceleration versus probability of exceedance with and without site amplification for Bengkulu Fatmawati, Liwa, and Kota Agung-Lampung.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5080023/v1/102ea5bbb44d4f51a03bcbdd.png"},{"id":75930790,"identity":"b7215efa-1e56-4e90-a221-b843c0496fad","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-10 16:13:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":810688,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RevisedmanuscriptJETs4nhaz2024finalclean.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5080023/v1_covered_22ed2ce1-7896-48cb-a88a-6302b1b5ee66.pdf"},{"id":69570136,"identity":"d5cf19f2-5ff4-456a-8d5b-76ef282b6126","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-21 18:39:13","extension":"tif","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":15102,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Table1.tif","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5080023/v1/4793f96f0322e7ada589b272.tif"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eTable 1 is available in the Supplementary Files section.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELMs) for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) around The Southern off-coast of Sumatra - West Java","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"RELMs, modified Probability Gain, SHA, PGA, Amplification","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5080023/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5080023/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study investigates the application of time-independent models for the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELMs) earthquake forecast testing based on the modified probability gain (mG) for seismic hazard study and analysis (SHA) in the southern off-coast of Sumatra-West Java utilizing a 15 years Region Time Length (RTL). 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