Assessment of Rainfall Variability in the Western Vidarbha Region of Maharashtra, India

Assessment of Rainfall Variability in the Western Vidarbha Region of Maharashtra, India | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Assessment of Rainfall Variability in the Western Vidarbha Region of Maharashtra, India Sapana Ashok Sasane, Adarshi Sharma, R Balasubramanian, Anuya Manjarekar This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6680992/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This research analyzed spatial and temporal variations in annual and seasonal rainfall in five districts of Western Vidarbha, Maharashtra, India, using 31 years (1990–2020) of daily data from 29 stations in Akola, Amravati, Buldhana, Washim, and Yavatmal, provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. The data were analyzed using Simple Linear Regression (SLR) with a Student's t-test for significance and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test utilizing Sen’s slope (SS) to evaluate trends at a 5% significance level. Results indicate a non-significant declining trend in rainfall overall. Only Yavatmal shows a significant decline in both annual and post-monsoon seasons per SLR. MK tests confirm that rainfall patterns are irregular, with Buldhana and Yavatmal exhibiting significant declines in post-monsoon periods (Z values of -1.97 and − 2.18). The Markov chain method assessed wet and dry spells during the monsoon, indicating low rainfall during meteorological weeks 22 to 27, while most occurred during weeks 28 to 34. The highest consecutive dry spells were in Akola and Washim, whereas Amravati showed a high probability of consecutive wet weeks, indicating consistent monsoonal rainfall. These anomalies have severely impacted agriculture, raising concerns about farmers’ suicides in Vidarbha. Consequently, these findings and visual outputs support policy considerations for effective water management. Simple Linear Regression Mann-Kendall test Markov chain model Dry spell Wet spell Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6680992","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":491403081,"identity":"07aabbf8-7533-43eb-bf12-dc78f1a8e450","order_by":0,"name":"Sapana Ashok Sasane","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNCDD0DMxk6KDsYZIC3MpGhh5gGTBFTJt589+Lmgpk4exHhs82ubPB8zA+OHjzm4tRicyUuWnnHssOEGIMM4t++2YRszA7PkzG14tDDkGEjzsB1g3MCQYyad23ObEaiFjZkXjxb5/jfGv3n+1dnP739j/tuy57Y9QS0MN4CG87YxJzYAGcwMP24nEtRicONdmjVv3+HkDTfeGEv2NtxObmNmbMbrF/n+3MO3eb7V2c7vzzH88OPPbdv57c0HP3zE5zAGHiQ2YxuYbMCnHk0Lwx8CikfBKBgFo2BEAgCMG088kVmVRAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Savitribai Phule Pune University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sapana","middleName":"Ashok","lastName":"Sasane","suffix":""},{"id":491403082,"identity":"70d8cb21-c247-4894-9293-5999119eaa03","order_by":1,"name":"Adarshi Sharma","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Savitribai Phule Pune University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Adarshi","middleName":"","lastName":"Sharma","suffix":""},{"id":491403083,"identity":"45845c7c-3ba2-46d6-8b23-89fd1455ada8","order_by":2,"name":"R Balasubramanian","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Savitribai Phule Pune University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"R","middleName":"","lastName":"Balasubramanian","suffix":""},{"id":491403084,"identity":"63b172b4-921b-4d29-bb62-1ac3541b7619","order_by":3,"name":"Anuya Manjarekar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Savitribai Phule Pune University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anuya","middleName":"","lastName":"Manjarekar","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-16 13:08:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6680992/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6680992/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88297211,"identity":"e3006b9e-0031-4c8d-ab0a-a4483f3bfd2c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-05 03:44:12","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1427244,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ResearchpaperonRFvariabilityWesternVidarbha.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6680992/v1_covered_c0d302f6-a7ba-4dd3-9bfc-06bcf0f42968.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Assessment of Rainfall Variability in the Western Vidarbha Region of Maharashtra, India","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Simple Linear Regression, Mann-Kendall test, Markov chain model, Dry spell, Wet spell","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6680992/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6680992/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis research analyzed spatial and temporal variations in annual and seasonal rainfall in five districts of Western Vidarbha, Maharashtra, India, using 31 years (1990\u0026ndash;2020) of daily data from 29 stations in Akola, Amravati, Buldhana, Washim, and Yavatmal, provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. The data were analyzed using Simple Linear Regression (SLR) with a Student's t-test for significance and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test utilizing Sen\u0026rsquo;s slope (SS) to evaluate trends at a 5% significance level. Results indicate a non-significant declining trend in rainfall overall. Only Yavatmal shows a significant decline in both annual and post-monsoon seasons per SLR. MK tests confirm that rainfall patterns are irregular, with Buldhana and Yavatmal exhibiting significant declines in post-monsoon periods (Z values of -1.97 and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2.18). The Markov chain method assessed wet and dry spells during the monsoon, indicating low rainfall during meteorological weeks 22 to 27, while most occurred during weeks 28 to 34. The highest consecutive dry spells were in Akola and Washim, whereas Amravati showed a high probability of consecutive wet weeks, indicating consistent monsoonal rainfall. These anomalies have severely impacted agriculture, raising concerns about farmers\u0026rsquo; suicides in Vidarbha. 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