Food Inflation in India: An Econometrics analysis

Food Inflation in India: An Econometrics analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Case Report Food Inflation in India: An Econometrics analysis Agamjot Singh This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4242557/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study delves into the dynamics of food inflation in India, analysing data from 1982-83 to 2019-20 to understand the effects of real rural wages, minimum support prices (MSP), and trade liberalisation. Utilising the Johansen Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Chow Test for structural breaks, we uncover the long-term and short-run relationships influencing food prices. Our findings highlight the significant role of policy adjustments and income factors, alongside identifying structural shifts in the inflationary trend. This research offers valuable insights for crafting policies to achieve food price stability while ensuring economic welfare, thus enriching the dialogue on managing food inflation in India. Econometrics Food Inflation Real Rural Wages Minimum Support Prices (MSP) Trade Liberalisation Johansen Cointegration Test Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Structural Breaks Economic Policy Agricultural Productivity India Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4242557","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Case Report","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":289320530,"identity":"113d8aad-c258-4ee1-966a-b88ff084d492","order_by":0,"name":"Agamjot Singh","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNCCCjY5++MNQIaBBbFazvAZM5w5ANIiQaQOxja5xIYbCSAmEVr4+xc/3cDYZsbYOPP51Q0/CiQY+Nu7E/BqkbjxzOwGw7k0ZmbpnLKbPUCHSZw5uwG/NTcOALWUHWNjk85Ju8ED1GIgkYtfi/yN499uMLD95+GRPJN28w8xWgzO9wBtaWOTkJBgP3abKFsMb/CU3Ug4w2ZgwJPDdlvGQIKHoF/kzh/fduNDBVv9Bvbjz26++WMjx9/eS8D7EgkMDAlgFo8BmMSvHAT4D8BY7A8Iqx4Fo2AUjIIRCQCAekqspChVAQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Agamjot","middleName":"","lastName":"Singh","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-04-09 14:16:35","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":true,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true,"humanSubjectConsent":true,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4242557/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4242557/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":54407406,"identity":"3b9b3871-5dbd-4427-9eea-8fde7cf9508a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-10 04:24:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1947316,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"FI.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4242557/v1_covered_89f5e9f4-192b-4cab-b519-b641164c14e1.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eFood Inflation in India: An Econometrics analysis\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Food Inflation, Real Rural Wages, Minimum Support Prices (MSP), Trade Liberalisation, Johansen Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Structural Breaks, Economic Policy, Agricultural Productivity, India","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4242557/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4242557/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study delves into the dynamics of food inflation in India, analysing data from 1982-83 to 2019-20 to understand the effects of real rural wages, minimum support prices (MSP), and trade liberalisation. Utilising the Johansen Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Chow Test for structural breaks, we uncover the long-term and short-run relationships influencing food prices. Our findings highlight the significant role of policy adjustments and income factors, alongside identifying structural shifts in the inflationary trend. This research offers valuable insights for crafting policies to achieve food price stability while ensuring economic welfare, thus enriching the dialogue on managing food inflation in India.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Food Inflation in India: An Econometrics analysis","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-04-10 04:07:56","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4242557/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"2ed15c9a-aa73-4ce9-b723-a283778f7660","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 10th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":30465852,"name":"Econometrics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-04-10T04:07:56+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-04-10 04:07:56","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4242557","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4242557","identity":"rs-4242557","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}